Charleston at Drake
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Knapp Center. Charleston our rank 116 · 3-0; Drake our rank 122 · 2-0.
Who will win Charleston vs Drake?
The model gives Drake a 59% chance to beat Charleston, with a projected score of Drake 79, Charleston 76.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake | |||||
| CarrollF · 28 min | 16.2 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 15+ 56% | |
| LarsonG · 32 min | 11.1 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 10+ 56% | |
| KindellG · 27 min | 10.5 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 10+ 52% | |
| BurnsF · 25 min | 9.6 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 10+ 45% | |
| Charleston | |||||
| JohnsonG · 28 min | 17.1 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 15+ 61% | |
| BradfordG · 25 min | 14.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 15+ 46% | |
| EllisG · 24 min | 9.3 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 10+ 43% | |
| GreenG · 25 min | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 10+ 37% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dre Kindell: Charleston 47%Drake 53%
The white mark is the call with him: Drake 59%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Drake without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake | ||||
| Dre Kindell | 1.8 | 53% | −6 | 77–78 |
| Jon Carroll | 1.4 | 54% | −5 | 77–78 |
| Eli Shetlar | 0.8 | 56% | −3 | 76–78 |
| Owen Larson | 0.7 | 57% | −2 | 76–78 |
| Charleston | ||||
| Tavari Johnson | 2.4 | 67% | +8 | 75–80 |
| Max Green | 1.2 | 63% | +4 | 75–79 |
| Ben Bradford | 1.1 | 63% | +4 | 75–79 |
| Braden Pierce | 1.0 | 63% | +4 | 75–79 |
Change is in Drake's win chance, in points. Scores read Charleston, then Drake. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Charleston 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 91-81at TempleCovered −1.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 6W 112-66vs Newberry
- Nov 2W 111-55vs Southern Wesleyan
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 104.7 and allowing 67.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Charleston | Drake | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.7 94th | 106.5 133rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.2 179th | 105.7 125th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.2% 32nd | 50.0% 219th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.1% 149th | 51.9% 279th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.7% 135th | 18.8% 270th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 167th | 31.1% 222nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 39th | 0.27 137th |
The widest gap: Drake's offense (133rd) against Charleston's defense (179th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Charleston 36, Drake 37
- First-half margin
- Drake by 1.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.6
- Projected second half
- Charleston 40, Drake 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Charleston, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 50.0 scored, 27.0 allowed
- Drake, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 41.5 scored, 24.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Charleston
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavari JohnsonG | 28 | 17.1 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 4+ ast 46% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Max GreenG | 25 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Ben BradfordG | 25 | 14.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Eli EllisG | 24 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Braden PierceC | 21 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Xavier AbreuG | 17 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Martin KaluG | 16 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Kobe EdwardsG | 12 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
Drake
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen LarsonG | 32 | 11.1 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jon CarrollF | 28 | 16.2 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 8+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Dre KindellG | 27 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Andrew AliaG | 26 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Justin BurnsF | 25 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Eli ShetlarG | 20 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Griffen GoodbaryF | 13 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Dothan IjadimbolaG | 12 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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