SC State at Charleston
Sunday, November 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at TD Arena. SC State our rank 291 · 3-1; Charleston our rank 116 · 3-0.
Who will win SC State vs Charleston?
The model gives Charleston a 89% chance to beat South Carolina State, with a projected score of Charleston 84, SC State 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston | |||||
| JohnsonG · 27 min | 17.8 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 20+ 38% | |
| BradfordG · 24 min | 15.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 15+ 50% | |
| EllisG · 23 min | 9.9 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 10+ 47% | |
| GreenG · 25 min | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 10+ 40% | |
| SC State | |||||
| TreadwellG · 24 min | 10.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 10+ 54% | |
| TaylorG · 20 min | 8.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 10+ 36% | |
| Jackson Jr.PG · 25 min | 7.2 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 5+ 66% | |
| TindalF · 19 min | 7.0 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tavari Johnson: SC State 15%Charleston 85%
The white mark is the call with him: Charleston 89%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Charleston without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston | ||||
| Tavari Johnson | 2.4 | 85% | −4 | 70–83 |
| Max Green | 1.2 | 88% | −1 | 70–83 |
| Ben Bradford | 1.1 | 88% | −1 | 70–83 |
| Braden Pierce | 1.0 | 88% | −1 | 70–83 |
| SC State | ||||
| Mitchell Taylor | 0.5 | 90% | +1 | 69–84 |
Change is in Charleston's win chance, in points. Scores read SC State, then Charleston. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
SC State 3-1WWWL
- Nov 11L 59-99at Notre DameDidn't cover +26.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 9W 82-67at Chicago StCovered +2.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 6W 78-70at SC UpstateCovered +3.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 2W 94-55vs Morris
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 78.2 and allowing 72.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 1 under
Charleston 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 91-81at TempleCovered −1.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 6W 112-66vs Newberry
- Nov 2W 111-55vs Southern Wesleyan
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 104.7 and allowing 67.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| SC State | Charleston | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.1 323rd | 109.7 94th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.0 194th | 108.2 179th |
| Possessions a game | 72.3 49th | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.2% 277th | 53.2% 32nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 112th | 50.1% 149th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 15.4% 3rd | 17.7% 135th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 250th | 31.9% 167th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 197th | 0.30 39th |
The widest gap: Charleston's defense (179th) against SC State's offense (323rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- SC State 32, Charleston 40
- First-half margin
- Charleston by 8.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.8
- Projected second half
- SC State 37, Charleston 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- SC State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 40.5 scored, 36.5 allowed
- Charleston, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 50.0 scored, 27.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
SC State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Jackson Jr.PG | 25 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Noah TreadwellG | 24 | 10.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 3.0 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 47% · 3+ threes 51% | |||||
| Mitchell TaylorG | 20 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 60% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Teon TindalF | 19 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 47% | |||||
| Treven RaymonF | 17 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Derwin Hodge Jr.F | 16 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Chris ParkerF | 16 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Christian BarnesPG | 13 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
Charleston
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavari JohnsonG | 27 | 17.8 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 54% | |||||
| Max GreenG | 25 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Ben BradfordG | 24 | 15.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Eli EllisG | 23 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Braden PierceC | 21 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Xavier AbreuG | 18 | 8.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Martin KaluG | 16 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Kobe EdwardsG | 12 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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