SC State at The Citadel
Friday, November 20, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at McAlister Field House. SC State our rank 291 · 3-1; The Citadel our rank 351 · 2-1.
Who will win SC State vs The Citadel?
The model gives South Carolina State a 65% chance to beat The Citadel, with a projected score of SC State 75, The Citadel 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC State | |||||
| TreadwellG · 24 min | 11.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 10+ 61% | |
| TaylorG · 20 min | 8.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 10+ 40% | |
| Jackson Jr.PG · 26 min | 8.0 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 10+ 33% | |
| TindalF · 19 min | 7.5 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 5+ 69% | |
| The Citadel | |||||
| EkwereF · 24 min | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 10+ 51% | |
| MrusF · 21 min | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 10+ 48% | |
| DavisG · 22 min | 9.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 44% | |
| BanksG · 22 min | 7.7 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Mitchell Taylor: SC State 63%The Citadel 37%
The white mark is the call with him: SC State 65%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | SC State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC State | ||||
| Mitchell Taylor | 0.5 | 63% | −2 | 75–71 |
Change is in SC State's win chance, in points. Scores read SC State, then The Citadel. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
SC State 3-1WWWL
- Nov 11L 59-99at Notre DameDidn't cover +26.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 9W 82-67at Chicago StCovered +2.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 6W 78-70at SC UpstateCovered +3.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 2W 94-55vs Morris
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 78.2 and allowing 72.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 1 under
The Citadel 2-1LWW
- Nov 10W 131-50vs Virginia Lynchburg
- Nov 6W 100-57vs Erskine
- Nov 2L 52-77at Loyola Chicago
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 94.3 and allowing 61.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| SC State | The Citadel | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.1 323rd | 96.6 319th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.0 194th | 116.4 351st |
| Possessions a game | 72.3 49th | 69.2 327th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.2% 277th | 50.1% 215th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 112th | 49.8% 132nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 15.4% 3rd | 19.8% 332nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 250th | 32.1% 154th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 197th | 0.26 201st |
The widest gap: SC State's defense (194th) against The Citadel's offense (319th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- SC State 35, The Citadel 33
- First-half margin
- SC State by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.1
- Projected second half
- SC State 40, The Citadel 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- SC State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 40.5 scored, 36.5 allowed
- The Citadel, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 45.7 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
SC State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Jackson Jr.PG | 26 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 56% | |||||
| Noah TreadwellG | 24 | 11.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 51% · 3+ threes 55% | |||||
| Mitchell TaylorG | 20 | 8.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 41% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Teon TindalF | 19 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 52% | |||||
| Treven RaymonF | 17 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Derwin Hodge Jr.F | 16 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Chris ParkerF | 15 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Christian BarnesPG | 13 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
The Citadel
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron EkwereF | 24 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Ramel BetheaF | 23 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Marcus BanksG | 22 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 42% | |||||
| Keynan DavisG | 22 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Eddrin BronsonG | 22 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 25% to play · 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Chase CormierG | 22 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Tyler MrusF | 21 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Marcos GonzalesG | 20 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
Missed the last game: Joe Hurlburt (23 min a game) and Eddrin Bronson (27 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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