The Citadel at North Florida
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at UNF Arena. The Citadel our rank 351 · 2-1; North Florida our rank 340 · 1-2.
Who will win The Citadel vs North Florida?
The model gives North Florida a 66% chance to beat The Citadel, with a projected score of North Florida 77, The Citadel 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Florida | |||||
| JacksonG · 29 min | 13.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 15+ 40% | |
| WatkinsG · 29 min | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 10+ 51% | |
| BartelusG · 24 min | 9.5 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 10+ 44% | |
| PlacerG · 21 min | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 10+ 37% | |
| The Citadel | |||||
| EkwereF · 24 min | 10.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 10+ 52% | |
| MrusF · 21 min | 10.2 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 10+ 49% | |
| DavisG · 22 min | 9.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 45% | |
| BanksG · 22 min | 7.9 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The Citadel 2-1LWW
- Nov 10W 131-50vs Virginia Lynchburg
- Nov 6W 100-57vs Erskine
- Nov 2L 52-77at Loyola Chicago
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 94.3 and allowing 61.3
North Florida 1-2WLL
- Nov 9L 51-89at MiamiDidn't cover +35.5 · Under 165.5
- Nov 6L 63-114at UCLADidn't cover +31.5 · Over 156.5
- Nov 3W 71-63at CA Baptist
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 61.7 and allowing 88.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| The Citadel | North Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.6 319th | 95.2 337th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 116.4 351st | 112.9 308th |
| Possessions a game | 69.2 327th | 73.6 6th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.1% 215th | 48.8% 301st |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.8% 132nd | 49.2% 79th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.8% 332nd | 19.1% 293rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.1% 154th | 28.5% 337th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 201st | 0.23 326th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- The Citadel 34, North Florida 37
- First-half margin
- North Florida by 2.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.4
- Projected second half
- The Citadel 39, North Florida 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- The Citadel, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 45.7 scored, 28.0 allowed
- North Florida, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 26.0 scored, 42.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
The Citadel
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron EkwereF | 24 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Ramel BetheaF | 22 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Marcus BanksG | 22 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Keynan DavisG | 22 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Eddrin BronsonG | 22 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 25% to play · 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Chase CormierG | 22 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Tyler MrusF | 21 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Marcos GonzalesG | 20 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
Missed the last game: Joe Hurlburt (23 min a game) and Eddrin Bronson (27 min a game).
North Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent JacksonG | 29 | 13.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 56% · 3+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mason WatkinsG | 29 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Elijah ElliottG | 24 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| JR BartelusG | 24 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Ayuba Bryant Jr.F | 23 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Eddie PlacerG | 21 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| BJ PlummerG | 20 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Mason LeeG | 20 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 49% to play · 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
Missed the last game: Mason Lee (22 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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