Little Rock at North Florida
Saturday, November 21, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at UNF Arena. Little Rock our rank 272 · 0-3; North Florida our rank 340 · 1-2.
Who will win Little Rock vs North Florida?
The model gives Little Rock a 60% chance to beat North Florida, with a projected score of Little Rock 78, North Florida 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock | |||||
| KingG · 31 min | 17.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 15+ 63% | |
| HubbardF · 23 min | 14.6 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 15+ 47% | |
| ClarkG · 26 min | 10.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 10+ 48% | |
| LynG · 22 min | 9.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 10+ 42% | |
| North Florida | |||||
| JacksonG · 29 min | 13.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 15+ 38% | |
| WatkinsG · 29 min | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 10+ 50% | |
| BartelusG · 24 min | 9.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 10+ 43% | |
| PlacerG · 22 min | 8.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Bradyn Hubbard: Little Rock 58%North Florida 42%
The white mark is the call with him: Little Rock 60%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Little Rock without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock | ||||
| Bradyn Hubbard | 0.5 | 58% | −2 | 78–75 |
Change is in Little Rock's win chance, in points. Scores read Little Rock, then North Florida. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Little Rock 0-3LLL
- Nov 10L 69-94at New MexicoDidn't cover +23.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 7L 79-83vs SE LouisianaDidn't cover −10.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 2L 72-82at VCU
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 73.3 and allowing 86.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
North Florida 1-2WLL
- Nov 9L 51-89at MiamiDidn't cover +35.5 · Under 165.5
- Nov 6L 63-114at UCLADidn't cover +31.5 · Over 156.5
- Nov 3W 71-63at CA Baptist
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 61.7 and allowing 88.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Little Rock | North Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.2 244th | 95.2 337th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.7 302nd | 112.9 308th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 73.6 6th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.6% 176th | 48.8% 301st |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.6% 313th | 49.2% 79th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.9% 280th | 19.1% 293rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 103rd | 28.5% 337th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 100th | 0.23 326th |
The widest gap: Little Rock's offense (244th) against North Florida's defense (308th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Little Rock 37, North Florida 35
- First-half margin
- Little Rock by 1.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.8
- Projected second half
- Little Rock 41, North Florida 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Little Rock, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 43.3 allowed
- North Florida, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 26.0 scored, 42.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Little Rock
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jah'Likai KingG | 31 | 17.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Aaron ClarkG | 26 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Bradyn HubbardF | 23 | 14.6 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Papa Amadou KanteF | 22 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Jalen LynG | 22 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Taj WaltersG | 22 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Cameron BrownG | 19 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Tyrese LaceyG | 17 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
North Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent JacksonG | 29 | 13.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 54% · 3+ threes 49% | |||||
| Mason WatkinsG | 29 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Elijah ElliottG | 24 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| JR BartelusG | 24 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Ayuba Bryant Jr.F | 23 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 50% | |||||
| Eddie PlacerG | 22 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| BJ PlummerG | 20 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Mason LeeG | 20 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 49% to play · 5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
Missed the last game: Mason Lee (22 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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