The Citadel at Clemson
Monday, November 16, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Littlejohn Coliseum. The Citadel our rank 351 · 2-1; Clemson our rank 63 · 3-0.
Who will win The Citadel vs Clemson?
The model gives Clemson a 99% chance to beat The Citadel, with a projected score of Clemson 88, The Citadel 58.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson | |||||
| BucknerG · 30 min | 16.9 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 15+ 60% | |
| FaulknerF · 29 min | 15.4 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 15+ 51% | |
| LeleviciusF · 29 min | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 15+ 44% | |
| CertaG · 28 min | 11.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 10+ 60% | |
| The Citadel | |||||
| EkwereF · 23 min | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 10+ 39% | |
| MrusF · 20 min | 8.6 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 10+ 38% | |
| DavisG · 22 min | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 34% | |
| BanksG · 22 min | 6.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dylan Faulkner: The Citadel 1%Clemson 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Clemson 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Clemson without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson | ||||
| Dylan Faulkner | 3.5 | 99% | 0 | 60–86 |
| Ace Buckner | 3.1 | 99% | 0 | 60–87 |
| Liutauras Lelevicius | 2.4 | 99% | 0 | 60–87 |
| Chase Thompson | 1.9 | 99% | 0 | 59–87 |
Change is in Clemson's win chance, in points. Scores read The Citadel, then Clemson. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The Citadel 2-1LWW
- Nov 10W 131-50vs Virginia Lynchburg
- Nov 6W 100-57vs Erskine
- Nov 2L 52-77at Loyola Chicago
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 94.3 and allowing 61.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| The Citadel | Clemson | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.6 319th | 115.3 50th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 116.4 351st | 102.0 84th |
| Possessions a game | 69.2 327th | 69.0 333rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.1% 215th | 53.1% 35th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.8% 132nd | 54.2% 352nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.8% 332nd | 18.0% 172nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.1% 154th | 30.9% 236th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 201st | 0.32 11th |
The widest gap: Clemson's offense (50th) against The Citadel's defense (351st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- The Citadel 26, Clemson 42
- First-half margin
- Clemson by 16.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.7
- Projected second half
- The Citadel 32, Clemson 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- The Citadel, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 45.7 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Clemson, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.0 scored, 33.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
The Citadel
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron EkwereF | 23 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Ramel BetheaF | 22 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Marcus BanksG | 22 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Keynan DavisG | 22 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Chase CormierG | 21 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Eddrin BronsonG | 20 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 25% to play · 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Tyler MrusF | 20 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Marcos GonzalesG | 20 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
Missed the last game: Joe Hurlburt (23 min a game) and Eddrin Bronson (27 min a game).
Clemson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace BucknerG | 30 | 16.9 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 5+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Liutauras LeleviciusF | 29 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Dylan FaulknerF | 29 | 15.4 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 9+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Cole CertaG | 28 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Chase ThompsonF | 26 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Dallas ThomasF | 19 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| David FuchsF | 17 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Harris ReynoldsG | 13 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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