The Citadel 52, Loyola Chicago 77
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Gentile Arena. The Citadel our rank 351 · 2-1; Loyola Chicago our rank 132 · 2-1.
Who won The Citadel vs Loyola Chicago?
Final: Loyola Chicago 77, The Citadel 52. Before tip-off the model gave Loyola Chicago a 88% chance to win, with a projected margin of 14.3 points for Loyola Chicago. Dayan Nessah scored 19 for Loyola Chicago; Joe Hurlburt had 11 for The Citadel.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Chris Jeffrey: The Citadel 15%Loyola Chicago 85%
The white mark is the call with him: Loyola Chicago 88%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Loyola Chicago without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loyola Chicago | ||||
| Chris Jeffrey | 1.4 | 85% | −3 | 59–72 |
| Jason Schofield | 1.2 | 86% | −2 | 59–72 |
| Jayden Dawson | 1.0 | 86% | −2 | 59–72 |
| Elias Rapieque | 0.8 | 86% | −2 | 58–72 |
Change is in Loyola Chicago's win chance, in points. Scores read The Citadel, then Loyola Chicago. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The Citadel
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Loyola Chicago
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| The Citadel | Loyola Chicago | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.6 319th | 105.6 149th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 116.4 351st | 106.3 134th |
| Possessions a game | 69.2 327th | 70.3 238th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.1% 215th | 51.3% 127th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.8% 132nd | 50.0% 148th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.8% 332nd | 17.4% 106th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.1% 154th | 34.5% 34th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 201st | 0.21 353rd |
The widest gap: Loyola Chicago's offense (149th) against The Citadel's defense (351st), of 365 teams.
First half
Loyola Chicago led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.1 points and the total by 1.8.
- At halftime
- The Citadel 27, Loyola Chicago 36
- Projected halftime score
- The Citadel 27, Loyola Chicago 35
- First-half margin
- Loyola Chicago by 7.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
The Citadel
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos GonzalesG | 31 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Keynan DavisG | 27 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Eddrin BronsonG | 27 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Joe HurlburtF | 23 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
| Marcus BanksG | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Aaron EkwereF | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler MrusF | 17 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Ramel BetheaF | 15 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase CormierG | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Loyola Chicago
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayan NessahG | 32 | 19 | 9 | 0 | 2 |
| Guillaume GrotzingerG | 28 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jason SchofieldC | 26 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 1 |
| Ryan AgarwalG | 24 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris JeffreyG | 20 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Jayden DawsonG | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Xavier AmosF | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dayton WilliamsG | 14 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Nic AndersonG | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |