Miami OH 86, James Madison 77
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Atlantic Union Bank Center. Miami OH our rank 112 · 2-0; James Madison our rank 167 · 1-2.
Who won Miami OH vs James Madison?
Final: Miami (OH) 86, James Madison 77. Before tip-off the model gave Miami (OH) a 67% chance to win, with a projected margin of 5.5 points for Miami (OH). Luke Skaljac scored 19 for Miami OH; Paul Jones III had 14 for James Madison.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Luke Skaljac: Miami OH 61%James Madison 39%
The white mark is the call with him: Miami OH 67%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Miami OH without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami OH | ||||
| Luke Skaljac | 2.2 | 61% | −6 | 72–68 |
| Antwone Woolfolk | 1.9 | 62% | −5 | 72–68 |
| Evan Ipsaro | 1.7 | 62% | −5 | 72–68 |
| Almar Atlason | 1.1 | 64% | −3 | 72–68 |
| James Madison | ||||
| Brandon Lee | 1.6 | 72% | +5 | 74–66 |
| K.J. Windham | 1.0 | 70% | +3 | 73–67 |
| Adrian Myers | 0.9 | 70% | +3 | 73–67 |
| Garrett Sundra | 0.9 | 70% | +3 | 73–67 |
Change is in Miami OH's win chance, in points. Scores read Miami OH, then James Madison. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Miami OH
No games yet this season: this is its first.
James Madison
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Miami OH | James Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.0 102nd | 105.4 153rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.6 142nd | 109.7 217th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 63rd | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.8% 158th | 50.4% 192nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 113th | 50.9% 209th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.1% 73rd | 16.7% 47th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.4% 142nd | 32.5% 136th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 91st | 0.25 251st |
The widest gap: Miami OH's offense (102nd) against James Madison's defense (217th), of 365 teams.
First half
James Madison led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 9.0 points and the total by 10.3.
- At halftime
- Miami OH 35, James Madison 41
- Projected halftime score
- Miami OH 34, James Madison 31
- First-half margin
- Miami OH by 3.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Miami OH
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke SkaljacG | 32 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Almar AtlasonF | 31 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Evan IpsaroG | 27 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| Antwone WoolfolkF | 25 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin KirbyG | 25 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle WaltzF | 21 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Stevie ElamG | 21 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler RobbinsF | 11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Alan HortonF | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
James Madison
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian MyersG | 29 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Garrett SundraF | 26 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| K.J. WindhamG | 25 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Preston FowlerF | 24 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Paul Jones IIIG | 22 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Brandon LeeG | 21 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Gage LattimoreG | 20 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Ace MeeksG | 17 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jacob HogarthF | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 |