Miami OH at Evansville
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Ford Center. Miami OH our rank 112 · 2-0; Evansville our rank 289 · 2-1.
Who will win Miami OH vs Evansville?
The model gives Miami (OH) a 79% chance to beat Evansville, with a projected score of Miami OH 81, Evansville 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami OH | |||||
| IpsaroG · 30 min | 13.8 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 15+ 42% | |
| AtlasonF · 31 min | 13.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 15+ 40% | |
| SkaljacG · 28 min | 12.6 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 15+ 34% | |
| ElamG · 26 min | 11.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| Evansville | |||||
| QuinetG · 36 min | 14.6 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 15+ 47% | |
| CaseyF · 34 min | 13.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 15+ 41% | |
| LangenfeldG · 30 min | 10.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 10+ 53% | |
| SymonsG · 26 min | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 10+ 38% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Luke Skaljac: Miami OH 73%Evansville 27%
The white mark is the call with him: Miami OH 79%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Miami OH without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami OH | ||||
| Luke Skaljac | 2.2 | 73% | −6 | 80–73 |
| Antwone Woolfolk | 1.9 | 74% | −5 | 80–73 |
| Evan Ipsaro | 1.7 | 75% | −4 | 80–72 |
| Almar Atlason | 1.1 | 77% | −2 | 80–72 |
| Evansville | ||||
| AJ Casey | 0.6 | 81% | +2 | 81–71 |
Change is in Miami OH's win chance, in points. Scores read Miami OH, then Evansville. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Miami OH 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 80-73vs BellarmineDidn't cover −20.5 · Under 159.5
- Nov 2W 86-77at James Madison
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 83.0 and allowing 75.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Evansville 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 68-73at MTSUCovered +9.5 · Under 142.5
- Nov 7W 78-76vs S IndianaDidn't cover −7.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2W 80-70vs IU Kokomo
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 75.3 and allowing 73.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Miami OH | Evansville | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.0 102nd | 98.9 290th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.6 142nd | 111.7 284th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 63rd | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.8% 158th | 49.4% 263rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 113th | 51.5% 252nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.1% 73rd | 16.7% 44th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.4% 142nd | 30.0% 279th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 91st | 0.25 246th |
The widest gap: Miami OH's offense (102nd) against Evansville's defense (284th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Miami OH 38, Evansville 33
- First-half margin
- Miami OH by 5.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.5
- Projected second half
- Miami OH 43, Evansville 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Miami OH, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 35.5 scored, 36.0 allowed
- Evansville, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 28.0 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Miami OH
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almar AtlasonF | 31 | 13.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ threes 46% | |||||
| Evan IpsaroG | 30 | 13.8 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 42% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Luke SkaljacG | 28 | 12.6 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 |
| 41% to play · 15+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 55% · 5+ ast 44% | |||||
| Justin KirbyG | 28 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Antwone WoolfolkF | 26 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Stevie ElamG | 26 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Kyle WaltzF | 22 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Tyler RobbinsF | 12 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
Evansville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce QuinetG | 36 | 14.6 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| AJ CaseyF | 34 | 13.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 7+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Max LangenfeldG | 30 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ threes 40% | |||||
| Caden SymonsG | 26 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Makuei RiekG | 24 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Aaron GutmanG | 20 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Gustav WintherF | 15 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 46% | |||||
| James Dyson-MerweF | 14 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
Missed the last game: James Dyson-Merwe (16 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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