Le Moyne at Evansville
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Ford Center. Le Moyne our rank 345 · 1-2; Evansville our rank 289 · 2-1.
Who will win Le Moyne vs Evansville?
The model gives Evansville a 73% chance to beat Le Moyne, with a projected score of Evansville 78, Le Moyne 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evansville | |||||
| QuinetG · 36 min | 15.8 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 15+ 54% | |
| CaseyF · 35 min | 14.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 15+ 48% | |
| LangenfeldG · 30 min | 11.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 59% | |
| SymonsG · 26 min | 9.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 10+ 43% | |
| Le Moyne | |||||
| RoeF · 25 min | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 15+ 36% | |
| FrancisF · 18 min | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 10+ 40% | |
| TeatG · 23 min | 8.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 10+ 35% | |
| WilliamsG · 16 min | 5.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without AJ Casey: Le Moyne 28%Evansville 72%
The white mark is the call with him: Evansville 73%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Evansville without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evansville | ||||
| AJ Casey | 0.6 | 72% | −1 | 71–78 |
Change is in Evansville's win chance, in points. Scores read Le Moyne, then Evansville. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Le Moyne 1-2LLW
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 76.0 and allowing 76.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Evansville 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 68-73at MTSUCovered +9.5 · Under 142.5
- Nov 7W 78-76vs S IndianaDidn't cover −7.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2W 80-70vs IU Kokomo
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 75.3 and allowing 73.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Le Moyne | Evansville | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.9 326th | 98.9 290th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 114.8 333rd | 111.7 284th |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 73rd | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.3% 267th | 49.4% 263rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.3% 242nd | 51.5% 252nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.9% 277th | 16.7% 44th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.3% 316th | 30.0% 279th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 181st | 0.25 246th |
The widest gap: Evansville's offense (290th) against Le Moyne's defense (333rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Le Moyne 33, Evansville 37
- First-half margin
- Evansville by 3.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.7
- Projected second half
- Le Moyne 38, Evansville 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Le Moyne, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 44.0 allowed
- Evansville, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 28.0 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Le Moyne
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor RoeF | 25 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jayden TeatG | 23 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Leandro GyselG | 20 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Ty FrancisF | 18 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Damien KingG | 17 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Khalil WilliamsG | 16 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Kole WilliamsG | 15 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Kaden StuckeyF | 15 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 42% | |||||
Evansville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce QuinetG | 36 | 15.8 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 50% · 6+ ast 57% | |||||
| AJ CaseyF | 35 | 14.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 8+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Max LangenfeldG | 30 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 51% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Caden SymonsG | 26 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Makuei RiekG | 24 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Aaron GutmanG | 20 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Gustav WintherF | 15 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 50% | |||||
| James Dyson-MerweF | 14 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
Missed the last game: James Dyson-Merwe (16 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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