Who will win Alcorn St vs Missouri?
The model gives Missouri a >99% chance to beat Alcorn State, with a projected score of Missouri 98, Alcorn St 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Missouri | |||||
| Crowe Jr.G · 27 min | 18.2 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 20+ 40% | |
| TillerF · 26 min | 13.5 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 15+ 40% | |
| Mitchell Jr.G · 20 min | 12.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 10+ 64% | |
| JonesG · 19 min | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 10+ 59% | |
 Alcorn St | |||||
| ThomasG · 26 min | 12.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 62% | |
| Sirmans IIIG · 22 min | 7.2 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 5+ 66% | |
| RichardsonC · 15 min | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 5+ 51% | |
| SunderlandG · 16 min | 5.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5+ 46% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Bryson Tiller: Alcorn St <1%Missouri >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Missouri >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Missouri without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | ||||
| Bryson Tiller | 4.0 | >99% | 0 | 61–96 |
| Mark Mitchell Jr. | 3.3 | >99% | 0 | 60–96 |
| Kennard Davis Jr. | 3.2 | >99% | 0 | 60–96 |
| Trent Pierce | 2.8 | >99% | 0 | 60–97 |
Change is in Missouri's win chance, in points. Scores read Alcorn St, then Missouri. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Alcorn St 0-3LLL
- Nov 10L 57-94at Murray StDidn't cover +30.5 · Under 165.5
- Nov 5L 83-94vs HowardDidn't cover +9.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 2L 58-99at Ole Miss
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 66.0 and allowing 95.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Missouri 2-1WLW
- Nov 9W 96-58vs SIUECovered −29.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 6L 84-90vs Saint LouisDidn't cover −2.5 · Over 161.5
- Nov 3W 111-50vs Cleveland St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 97.0 and allowing 66.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Alcorn St | Missouri | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.2 336th | 120.0 13th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 120.2 365th | 98.6 42nd |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 264th | 54.1% 14th |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.4% 340th | 49.2% 82nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.1% 340th | 15.6% 4th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.7% 74th | 33.1% 102nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 290th | 0.26 167th |
The widest gap: Missouri's offense (13th) against Alcorn St's defense (365th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Alcorn St 26, Missouri 48
- First-half margin
- Missouri by 21.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.5
- Projected second half
- Alcorn St 33, Missouri 50
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Alcorn St, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 50.0 allowed
- Missouri, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 47.3 scored, 30.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Alcorn St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey ThomasG | 26 | 12.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Calvin Sirmans IIIG | 22 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jahseem FeltonG | 21 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Adam TokpahC | 18 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 52% | |||||
| Ma'Kye TaylorF | 18 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Braylhan ThomasG | 16 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Saxby SunderlandG | 16 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Christian RichardsonC | 15 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 46% | |||||
Missouri
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Crowe Jr.G | 27 | 18.2 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.2 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 4+ ast 57% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Bryson TillerF | 26 | 13.5 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 8+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Kennard Davis Jr.G | 24 | 10.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 2+ ast 57% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Trent PierceG | 23 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Toni BryantF | 22 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Mark Mitchell Jr.G | 20 | 12.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Jamier JonesG | 19 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Cord StansberryG | 11 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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