Alcorn St at Tarleton St
Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at EECU Center. Alcorn St our rank 362 · 0-3; Tarleton St our rank 252 · 2-1.
Who will win Alcorn St vs Tarleton St?
The model gives Tarleton State a 88% chance to beat Alcorn State, with a projected score of Tarleton St 84, Alcorn St 70. The spread is Tarleton St −14.5, with an over/under of 151.5. The model makes it Tarleton St by 13.8, 0.7 points toward Alcorn St, and projects 153 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarleton St | |||||
| Kelly IVG · 32 min | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 15+ 35% | |
| CopeG · 28 min | 11.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 10+ 56% | |
| EmmouG · 26 min | 9.9 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 10+ 48% | |
| ManiF · 18 min | 9.1 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 10+ 41% | |
| Alcorn St | |||||
| ThomasG · 27 min | 14.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 15+ 48% | |
| Sirmans IIIG · 22 min | 8.6 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 10+ 38% | |
| FeltonG · 21 min | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 5+ 52% | |
| SunderlandG · 16 min | 5.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 5+ 52% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Tarleton St −14.5 | 151.5 |
| Model | Tarleton St −13.8 | 153.4 |
| Gap | 0.7 toward Alcorn St | 1.9 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Alcorn St 0-3LLL
- Nov 10L 57-94at Murray StDidn't cover +30.5 · Under 165.5
- Nov 5L 83-94vs HowardDidn't cover +9.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 2L 58-99at Ole Miss
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 66.0 and allowing 95.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Tarleton St 2-1WLW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 84.0 and allowing 71.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Alcorn St | Tarleton St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.2 336th | 100.0 269th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 120.2 365th | 110.2 235th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 71.5 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 264th | 52.6% 58th |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.4% 340th | 49.3% 97th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.1% 340th | 18.6% 244th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.7% 74th | 32.6% 134th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 290th | 0.30 32nd |
The widest gap: Tarleton St's defense (235th) against Alcorn St's offense (336th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Alcorn St 32, Tarleton St 40
- First-half margin
- Tarleton St by 7.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.0
- Projected second half
- Alcorn St 38, Tarleton St 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Alcorn St, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 50.0 allowed
- Tarleton St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 29.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Alcorn St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey ThomasG | 27 | 14.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ threes 40% | |||||
| Calvin Sirmans IIIG | 22 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Jahseem FeltonG | 21 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Adam TokpahC | 18 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 46% | |||||
| Ma'Kye TaylorF | 17 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Braylhan ThomasG | 16 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Saxby SunderlandG | 16 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Jaylin CraineG | 15 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Tarleton St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Kelly IVG | 32 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 7+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| TJ CopeG | 28 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Franck EmmouG | 26 | 9.9 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Adrian ShackletonG | 23 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Kade DouglasG | 21 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Trey HarrisG | 19 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Brett FreemanG | 18 | 8.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Jac ManiF | 18 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 50% to play · 10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Missed the last game: Jac Mani (20 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…