N Illinois at Marquette
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Fiserv Forum. N Illinois our rank 336 · 2-2; Marquette our rank 21 · 2-1.
Who will win N Illinois vs Marquette?
The model gives Marquette a >99% chance to beat Northern Illinois, with a projected score of Marquette 92, N Illinois 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette | |||||
| ParhamF · 25 min | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 15+ 39% | |
| StevensG · 24 min | 10.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 10+ 54% | |
| MinessaleG · 19 min | 9.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 10+ 45% | |
| James Jr.G · 22 min | 9.5 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 10+ 45% | |
| N Illinois | |||||
| Douglas Jr.G · 25 min | 11.2 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 10+ 56% | |
| WeisbrodG · 27 min | 9.6 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 10+ 45% | |
| IvanauskasF · 18 min | 5.9 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 5+ 55% | |
| PoliteG · 23 min | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 5+ 54% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sananda Fru: N Illinois <1%Marquette >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Marquette >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Marquette without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette | ||||
| Sananda Fru | 4.1 | >99% | 0 | 59–90 |
| Nigel James Jr. | 3.0 | >99% | 0 | 59–90 |
| Royce Parham | 2.9 | >99% | 0 | 59–90 |
| Nolan Minessale | 2.9 | >99% | 0 | 59–90 |
Change is in Marquette's win chance, in points. Scores read N Illinois, then Marquette. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
N Illinois 2-2LLWW
- Nov 11W 82-43vs Clarke
- Nov 7W 81-76at DaytonCovered +19.5 · Over 147.5
- Nov 5L 75-94at TulsaDidn't cover +14.5 · Over 154.5
- Nov 2L 87-89vs Grambling
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 81.2 and allowing 75.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Marquette 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 70-84at MichiganDidn't cover +3.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 6W 93-32vs Detroit MercyCovered −32.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 2W 78-43vs Mercyhurst
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 80.3 and allowing 53.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N Illinois | Marquette | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.0 272nd | 114.7 56th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 117.1 357th | 92.0 11th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.8% 51st | 50.0% 224th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.8% 322nd | 47.7% 26th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.4% 102nd | 16.4% 20th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.2% 273rd | 35.2% 20th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 59th | 0.21 359th |
The widest gap: Marquette's offense (56th) against N Illinois's defense (357th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- N Illinois 26, Marquette 44
- First-half margin
- Marquette by 18.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.9
- Projected second half
- N Illinois 32, Marquette 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- N Illinois, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 35.2 scored, 38.0 allowed
- Marquette, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 22.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
N Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max WeisbrodG | 27 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| David Douglas Jr.G | 25 | 11.2 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Trevor PoliteG | 23 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Brayden GrossF | 20 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Mykolas IvanauskasF | 18 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 45% | |||||
| Bennett BasichG | 17 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Colin HardrickG | 16 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Nino Carter-SmithG | 16 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Marquette
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce ParhamF | 25 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Adrien StevensG | 24 | 10.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Sananda FruF | 22 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 7+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Nigel James Jr.G | 22 | 9.5 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 42% · 5+ ast 54% | |||||
| Nolan MinessaleG | 19 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Damarius OwensSF | 17 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Colin PorterG | 16 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Alex EgbuonuSF | 16 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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