Who won Rider vs Pitt?
Final: Pittsburgh 95, Rider 57. Before tip-off the model gave Pittsburgh a 97% chance to win, with a projected margin of 23.7 points for Pittsburgh. Chase Foster scored 23 for Pitt; Bryce Baker had 11 for Rider.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Jonathan Powell: Rider 4%Pitt 96%
The white mark is the call with him: Pitt 97%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Pitt without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pitt | ||||
| Jonathan Powell | 2.5 | 96% | −1 | 55–76 |
| Baye Ndongo | 2.4 | 96% | −1 | 55–76 |
| Naithan George | 2.1 | 96% | −1 | 55–76 |
| A'lahn Sumler | 2.1 | 96% | −1 | 55–76 |
Change is in Pitt's win chance, in points. Scores read Rider, then Pitt. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Rider | Pitt | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.8 355th | 109.9 90th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.9 346th | 100.1 58th |
| Possessions a game | 69.7 292nd | 69.9 276th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.6% 361st | 49.8% 231st |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.0% 330th | 49.2% 88th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 141st | 17.0% 68th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.2% 94th | 33.0% 108th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 229th | 0.30 31st |
The widest gap: Pitt's defense (58th) against Rider's offense (355th), of 365 teams.
First half
Pitt led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 11.0 points and the total by 14.7.
- At halftime
- Rider 26, Pitt 50
- Projected halftime score
- Rider 24, Pitt 37
- First-half margin
- Pitt by 13.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Rider
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce BakerG | 30 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Mark ButlerG | 24 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ty BevinsG | 24 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Khalil FarmerG | 22 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| Stephen Avegah SemeyC | 16 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Rich BriscoF | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kam WylieF | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Richie RosaG | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| JJ WashingtonG | 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Pitt
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naithan GeorgeG | 29 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 2 |
| A'lahn SumlerG | 28 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Jonathan PowellG | 28 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| Chase FosterF | 28 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| Jalil BetheaG | 20 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Akir SouareF | 16 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Baye NdongoF | 16 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Armani MightyC | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dominique DiomandeF | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |