AR-Pine Bluff at CA Baptist
Friday, November 13, 2026, 10:30 PM ET at Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center. AR-Pine Bluff our rank 365 · 0-3; CA Baptist our rank 329 · 0-3.
Who will win AR-Pine Bluff vs CA Baptist?
The model gives California Baptist a 84% chance to beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff, with a projected score of CA Baptist 80, AR-Pine Bluff 69. The spread is CA Baptist −15.5, with an over/under of 148.5. The model makes it CA Baptist by 10.9, 4.6 points toward AR-Pine Bluff, and projects 149 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Baptist | |||||
| Coner Jr.G · 30 min | 13.5 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 15+ 40% | |
| StonkusG · 24 min | 9.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 42% | |
| MullerG · 29 min | 8.6 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 10+ 38% | |
| DuncanG · 21 min | 7.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 5+ 69% | |
| AR-Pine Bluff | |||||
| RichF · 25 min | 11.9 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 10+ 62% | |
| TatumG · 31 min | 11.2 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 10+ 57% | |
| WilliamsonF · 25 min | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 5+ 65% | |
| SmithF · 22 min | 5.5 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 5+ 51% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | CA Baptist −15.5 | 148.5 |
| Model | CA Baptist −10.9 | 149.4 |
| Gap | 4.6 toward AR-Pine Bluff | 0.9 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 4 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 48.4% of 702 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
AR-Pine Bluff 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 37-106at UCLADidn't cover +47.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 6L 53-109at BaylorDidn't cover +38.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 3L 61-106at Arkansas
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 50.3 and allowing 107.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
CA Baptist 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 62-81vs Chicago StDidn't cover −11.5 · Over 138.5
- Nov 6L 68-96at Oregon StDidn't cover +20.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 3L 63-71vs North Florida
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 64.3 and allowing 82.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| AR-Pine Bluff | CA Baptist | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 90.6 363rd | 98.6 295th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 116.9 356th | 114.9 335th |
| Possessions a game | 72.9 24th | 69.7 292nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.6% 345th | 48.4% 322nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.6% 313th | 55.0% 360th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.5% 365th | 18.7% 260th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.2% 151st | 28.0% 351st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 232nd | 0.25 214th |
The widest gap: CA Baptist's offense (295th) against AR-Pine Bluff's defense (356th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- AR-Pine Bluff 32, CA Baptist 38
- First-half margin
- CA Baptist by 6.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.1
- Projected second half
- AR-Pine Bluff 37, CA Baptist 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- AR-Pine Bluff, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 16.7 scored, 52.0 allowed
- CA Baptist, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 30.3 scored, 38.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
AR-Pine Bluff
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen TatumG | 31 | 11.2 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Creed WilliamsonF | 25 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Macaleab RichF | 25 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| CJ SmithF | 22 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Harrison PickettG | 19 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Jai'chaunn HayesG | 19 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Kalli JohnsonG | 15 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Jeremy NyakundiF | 13 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
CA Baptist
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Coner Jr.G | 30 | 13.5 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Jordan MullerG | 29 | 8.6 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 38% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Justas StonkusG | 24 | 9.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Ethan DuncanG | 21 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Rene D'AmelioF | 18 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Jonas ZilinskasF | 17 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Steven Reynolds IIIG | 17 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Anton SafinF | 16 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…