Who will win St Thomas vs Army?
The model gives St. Thomas a 64% chance to beat Army, with a projected score of St Thomas 77, Army 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 St Thomas | |||||
| TibbitsG · 28 min | 11.9 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 10+ 61% | |
| FranksG · 26 min | 10.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 10+ 52% | |
| LorenzF · 25 min | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 46% | |
| BjerkeF · 25 min | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 10+ 37% | |
 Army | |||||
| CurryG · 30 min | 11.7 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 10+ 60% | |
| McCarthyG · 27 min | 11.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 10+ 58% | |
| HollowayF · 29 min | 10.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 10+ 48% | |
| LaczkowskiF · 25 min | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kendall Blue: St Thomas 61%Army 39%
The white mark is the call with him: St Thomas 64%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | St Thomas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Thomas | ||||
| Kendall Blue | 0.8 | 61% | −3 | 77–73 |
| Carter Bjerke | 0.5 | 62% | −2 | 77–73 |
| Jeremy Lorenz | 0.5 | 62% | −2 | 77–73 |
Change is in St Thomas's win chance, in points. Scores read St Thomas, then Army. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| St Thomas | Army | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.3 138th | 97.9 304th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.6 245th | 111.3 272nd |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.1% 137th | 48.5% 315th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.0% 69th | 49.1% 71st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.2% 90th | 19.1% 295th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 27.9% 353rd | 33.5% 88th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.31 20th | 0.22 349th |
The widest gap: St Thomas's offense (138th) against Army's defense (272nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- St Thomas 36, Army 34
- First-half margin
- St Thomas by 2.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.4
- Projected second half
- St Thomas 41, Army 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- St Thomas, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 37.8 allowed
- Army, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 29.3 scored, 23.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
St Thomas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden TibbitsG | 28 | 11.9 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ ast 58% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Tim FranksG | 26 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Carter BjerkeF | 25 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Jeremy LorenzF | 25 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Jonovan WilkinsonG | 22 | 8.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Caden WilkinsF | 17 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Austin HerroG | 16 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| 53% to play · 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Kendall BlueG | 13 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
Missed the last game: Austin Herro (20 min a game).
Army
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan CurryG | 30 | 11.7 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ ast 58% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| Jacen HollowayF | 29 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Kevin McCarthyG | 27 | 11.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Tate LaczkowskiF | 25 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Dillon WattG | 18 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Dylan BennerF | 16 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Patrick McDonoughG | 13 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Jaden EllisG | 13 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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