Northern Iowa at Oakland
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at OU Credit Union O'rena. Northern Iowa our rank 128 · 2-1; Oakland our rank 221 · 0-5.
Who will win Northern Iowa vs Oakland?
The model gives Northern Iowa a 59% chance to beat Oakland, with a projected score of Northern Iowa 80, Oakland 77.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa | |||||
| UelmenG · 31 min | 20.1 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 20+ 50% | |
| VisG · 29 min | 15.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 15+ 50% | |
| Johnson-AriguF · 26 min | 14.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 15+ 47% | |
| McCubbinG · 32 min | 11.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 10+ 55% | |
| Oakland | |||||
| MashhourG · 34 min | 18.6 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 20+ 42% | |
| Fields Jr.F · 31 min | 18.0 | 10.7 | 2.1 | 20+ 38% | |
| El ShakeryF · 18 min | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 5+ 67% | |
| ThompsonF · 18 min | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Isaiah Johnson-Arigu: Northern Iowa 55%Oakland 45%
The white mark is the call with him: Northern Iowa 59%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Northern Iowa without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa | ||||
| Isaiah Johnson-Arigu | 1.4 | 55% | −4 | 79–78 |
| Greyson Uelmen | 1.2 | 55% | −4 | 79–78 |
| Ian Smikle | 0.7 | 57% | −2 | 79–78 |
| Tate McCubbin | 0.6 | 57% | −2 | 80–77 |
| Oakland | ||||
| Chris Fields Jr. | 1.1 | 63% | +4 | 80–77 |
Change is in Northern Iowa's win chance, in points. Scores read Northern Iowa, then Oakland. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Northern Iowa 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 89-76vs Green BayCovered −3.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 7L 83-98at FurmanDidn't cover +4.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 3W 106-70vs Cornell (IA)
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 92.7 and allowing 81.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Oakland 0-5LLLLL
- Nov 11L 79-111at Boise StDidn't cover +16.5 · Over 160.5
- Nov 9L 68-109at AlabamaDidn't cover +32.5 · Over 170.5
- Nov 7L 67-90at Santa BarbaraDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 6L 63-81at StanfordDidn't cover +14.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 2L 68-84at Michigan
- Last five
- 0–5, scoring 69.0 and allowing 95.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–4
- Totals, this season
- 3 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Northern Iowa | Oakland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.7 106th | 106.3 138th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.8 193rd | 113.8 320th |
| Possessions a game | 69.3 322nd | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.1% 16th | 50.1% 211th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.1% 287th | 55.4% 362nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.4% 101st | 19.2% 300th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 240th | 34.4% 37th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 171st | 0.29 53rd |
The widest gap: Northern Iowa's offense (106th) against Oakland's defense (320th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Northern Iowa 38, Oakland 36
- First-half margin
- Northern Iowa by 1.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.7
- Projected second half
- Northern Iowa 42, Oakland 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Northern Iowa, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 38.7 allowed
- Oakland, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 5 · 33.4 scored, 46.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Northern Iowa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tate McCubbinG | 32 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Greyson UelmenG | 31 | 20.1 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 20+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Carson VisG | 29 | 15.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Isaiah Johnson-AriguF | 26 | 14.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Levi ValdoG | 20 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Ian SmikleF | 17 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Geon HutchinsG | 15 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Kyle PockF | 13 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Oakland
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassim MashhourG | 34 | 18.6 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| 20+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ threes 54% | |||||
| Chris Fields Jr.F | 31 | 18.0 | 10.7 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 11+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Warren Marshall IVG | 23 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| RJ TaylorG | 22 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Ryder BradleyG | 18 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Camden ThompsonF | 18 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Belal El ShakeryF | 18 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| William KassiG | 11 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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