Oakland at Arizona St
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Desert Financial Arena. Oakland our rank 221 · 0-5; Arizona St our rank 48 · 3-0.
Who will win Oakland vs Arizona St?
The model gives Arizona State a 97% chance to beat Oakland, with a projected score of Arizona St 90, Oakland 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona St | |||||
| MurauskasF · 33 min | 23.5 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 25+ 42% | |
| FoxwellG · 31 min | 13.8 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 15+ 42% | |
| CroyG · 24 min | 11.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 58% | |
| DeftyC · 21 min | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 10+ 44% | |
| Oakland | |||||
| MashhourG · 31 min | 15.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 15+ 53% | |
| Fields Jr.F · 29 min | 15.2 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 15+ 50% | |
| El ShakeryF · 18 min | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 5+ 63% | |
| ThompsonF · 18 min | 6.0 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Paulius Murauskas: Oakland 8%Arizona St 92%
The white mark is the call with him: Arizona St 97%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Arizona St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona St | ||||
| Paulius Murauskas | 5.6 | 92% | −5 | 71–87 |
| Dillan Shaw | 3.5 | 95% | −2 | 70–88 |
| Joel Foxwell | 2.6 | 96% | −1 | 70–89 |
| Ben Defty | 1.9 | 96% | −1 | 69–89 |
| Oakland | ||||
| Chris Fields Jr. | 1.1 | 98% | +1 | 68–91 |
Change is in Arizona St's win chance, in points. Scores read Oakland, then Arizona St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Oakland 0-5LLLLL
- Nov 11L 79-111at Boise StDidn't cover +16.5 · Over 160.5
- Nov 9L 68-109at AlabamaDidn't cover +32.5 · Over 170.5
- Nov 7L 67-90at Santa BarbaraDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 6L 63-81at StanfordDidn't cover +14.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 2L 68-84at Michigan
- Last five
- 0–5, scoring 69.0 and allowing 95.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–4
- Totals, this season
- 3 over, 1 under
Arizona St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 85-63vs HofstraCovered −18.5 · Over 133.5
- Nov 6W 90-63vs N ColoradoCovered −19.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2W 75-65vs ETSU
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.3 and allowing 63.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oakland | Arizona St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.3 138th | 116.0 40th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 113.8 320th | 99.8 54th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 70.6 209th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.1% 211th | 51.9% 88th |
| Opponents' shooting | 55.4% 362nd | 50.9% 214th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.2% 300th | 17.5% 114th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 37th | 34.8% 27th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 53rd | 0.26 154th |
The widest gap: Arizona St's offense (40th) against Oakland's defense (320th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Oakland 31, Arizona St 43
- First-half margin
- Arizona St by 11.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.4
- Projected second half
- Oakland 37, Arizona St 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Oakland, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 5 · 33.4 scored, 46.2 allowed
- Arizona St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.0 scored, 29.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Oakland
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassim MashhourG | 31 | 15.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 2+ ast 52% · 3+ threes 46% | |||||
| Chris Fields Jr.F | 29 | 15.2 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 9+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Warren Marshall IVG | 22 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| RJ TaylorG | 22 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Ryder BradleyG | 18 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Camden ThompsonF | 18 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Belal El ShakeryF | 18 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| William KassiG | 12 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Arizona St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulius MurauskasF | 33 | 23.5 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 25+ pts 42% · 8+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Dillan ShawG | 31 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 7+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Joel FoxwellG | 31 | 13.8 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 48% · 7+ ast 51% | |||||
| JRob CroyG | 24 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Ben DeftyC | 21 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Bryce FordG | 18 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Filip MalesevicC | 18 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Emmanuel InnocentiG | 16 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 27% to play · 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Missed the last game: Emmanuel Innocenti (17 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…