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UL Monroe at Arizona St

Friday, November 13, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Desert Financial Arena. UL Monroe our rank 298 · 1-3; Arizona St our rank 48 · 3-0.

Who will win UL Monroe vs Arizona St?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Arizona State a 99% chance to beat UL Monroe, with a projected score of Arizona St 92, UL Monroe 65. The spread is Arizona St −32.5, with an over/under of 150.5. The model makes it Arizona St by 26.4, 6.1 points toward UL Monroe, and projects 157 total points.

To winArizona St 99%UL Monroe 1%
Projected score65–92UL Monroe, then Arizona St
Margin26.4Arizona St · line: Arizona St 32.5
Total156.6line: 150.5
First half29–44Arizona St ahead 91%
Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40by 50Arizona St by 60Model: Arizona St by 26.4Line: Arizona St by 32.5Evenby 20by 40Arizona St by 60Model: Arizona St by 26.4Line: Arizona St by 32.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Arizona St
MurauskasF · 32 min23.38.12.725+ 41%
FoxwellG · 30 min13.83.77.015+ 41%
CroyG · 23 min11.43.01.710+ 58%
DeftyC · 21 min9.65.11.710+ 45%
UL Monroe
AndersonG · 31 min12.84.81.715+ 35%
McPhersonG · 25 min12.22.81.210+ 63%
LondonG · 21 min9.42.21.310+ 44%
TillmanG · 26 min8.22.31.810+ 35%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Paulius Murauskas: UL Monroe 3%Arizona St 97%

The white mark is the call with him: Arizona St 99%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsArizona St without himChangeProjected score
Arizona St
Paulius Murauskas5.697%−268–89
Dillan Shaw3.598%−167–90
Joel Foxwell2.698%−166–90
Ben Defty1.999%066–91

Change is in Arizona St's win chance, in points. Scores read UL Monroe, then Arizona St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Model against the line

DraftKings · as of 2:23 AM ET
SpreadOver/under
LineArizona St −32.5150.5
ModelArizona St −26.4156.6
Gap6.1 toward UL Monroe6.1 higher

A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 4 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 48.4% of 702 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    UL Monroe 1-3LWLL

    1. Nov 10L 92-100at TCUCovered +33.5 · Over 160.5
    2. Nov 9L 67-108at Texas A&MDidn't cover +36.5 · Over 169.5
    3. Nov 4W 99-55vs Champion Christian
    4. Nov 2L 78-83vs C Michigan
    Last 4
    1–3, scoring 84.0 and allowing 86.5
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    2 over, 0 under

    Arizona St 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 10W 85-63vs HofstraCovered −18.5 · Over 133.5
    2. Nov 6W 90-63vs N ColoradoCovered −19.5 · Over 143.5
    3. Nov 2W 75-65vs ETSU
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 83.3 and allowing 63.7
    Against the spread, this season
    2–0
    Totals, this season
    2 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    UL MonroeArizona St
    Points scored per 100 possessions100.3 264th116.0 40th
    Points allowed per 100113.7 319th99.8 54th
    Possessions a game72.3 49th70.6 209th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)50.9% 149th51.9% 88th
    Opponents' shooting50.3% 166th50.9% 214th
    Turnovers, share of possessions19.4% 311th17.5% 114th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses34.1% 55th34.8% 27th
    Free throws per shot0.25 242nd0.26 154th

    The widest gap: Arizona St's offense (40th) against UL Monroe's defense (319th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    UL Monroe 29, Arizona St 44
    First-half margin
    Arizona St by 14.5
    First-half points, both teams
    73.5
    Projected second half
    UL Monroe 36, Arizona St 48
    Second-half points, both teams
    83.1
    Tied at the half
    4%
    UL Monroe, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 4 · 39.8 scored, 38.0 allowed
    Arizona St, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 3 · 42.0 scored, 29.7 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    UL Monroe

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Dayjaun AndersonG3112.84.81.72.4
    15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 49%
    Lance CarrF265.95.60.70.1
    5+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 16%
    Phillip TillmanG268.22.31.80.7
    10+ pts 35% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 46%
    Quaran McPhersonG2512.22.81.21.4
    10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 39%
    Khalil LondonG219.42.21.31.2
    10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 37%
    Ziyade NdanckyC196.94.70.50.3
    5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 26%
    Mike WhiteG183.62.41.70.6
    5+ pts 32% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 45%
    Robert CowherdG164.71.20.51.0
    5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 58%

    Arizona St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Paulius MurauskasF3223.38.12.71.2
    25+ pts 41% · 8+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 48%
    Dillan ShawG319.17.22.41.4
    10+ pts 42% · 7+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 41%
    Joel FoxwellG3013.83.77.01.9
    15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 52%
    JRob CroyG2311.43.01.71.8
    10+ pts 58% · 2+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 50%
    Ben DeftyC219.65.11.70.0
    10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 47%
    Bryce FordG188.32.00.81.3
    10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 36%
    Filip MalesevicC186.45.61.00.1
    5+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 26%
    Emmanuel InnocentiG164.72.41.30.8
    27% to play · 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 52%

    Missed the last game: Emmanuel Innocenti (17 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 13

    All games
    1. 7 PMprojected 76-83Georgia at North Carolina, men's: game page
    2. 8 PMprojected 79-75Virginia at Maryland, men's: game page
    3. 9 PMprojected 81-76Xavier vs Mississippi St, men's: game page
    4. 9 PMprojected 68-74DePaul at Northwestern, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 76-81Arizona at Auburn, men's: game page
    6. 9 PMprojected 78-76Stanford at UNLV, men's: game page
    UL Monroe next: at Grand Canyon, Sat, Nov 14 · 2%Arizona St next: vs Oakland, Wed, Nov 18 · 97%UL Monroe: schedule and oddsArizona St: schedule and odds