ETSU 65, Arizona St 75
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at Desert Financial Arena. ETSU our rank 139 · 1-2; Arizona St our rank 48 · 3-0.
Who won ETSU vs Arizona St?
Final: Arizona State 75, East Tennessee State 65. Before tip-off the model gave Arizona State a 93% chance to win, with a projected margin of 18.4 points for Arizona State. Paulius Murauskas scored 21 for Arizona St; BJ Ward had 25 for ETSU.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Paulius Murauskas: ETSU 15%Arizona St 85%
The white mark is the call with him: Arizona St 93%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Arizona St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona St | ||||
| Paulius Murauskas | 5.6 | 85% | −8 | 62–74 |
| Dillan Shaw | 3.5 | 89% | −4 | 61–76 |
| Joel Foxwell | 2.6 | 90% | −3 | 60–76 |
| Ben Defty | 1.9 | 91% | −2 | 60–76 |
| ETSU | ||||
| Tyran Mason | 1.4 | 95% | +2 | 58–78 |
| Marqus Marion | 1.1 | 94% | +1 | 58–78 |
| Trevor Hennig | 0.7 | 94% | +1 | 58–78 |
| Jayden Cooper | 0.7 | 94% | +1 | 59–78 |
Change is in Arizona St's win chance, in points. Scores read ETSU, then Arizona St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
ETSU
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Arizona St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| ETSU | Arizona St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.5 152nd | 116.0 40th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.1 153rd | 99.8 54th |
| Possessions a game | 68.5 354th | 70.6 209th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.1% 79th | 51.9% 88th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.1% 78th | 50.9% 214th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.6% 325th | 17.5% 114th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 52nd | 34.8% 27th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 328th | 0.26 154th |
The widest gap: Arizona St's offense (40th) against ETSU's defense (153rd), of 365 teams.
First half
Arizona St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 4.1 points and the total by 4.1.
- At halftime
- ETSU 31, Arizona St 37
- Projected halftime score
- ETSU 27, Arizona St 37
- First-half margin
- Arizona St by 10.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
ETSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJ WardG | 37 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Marqus MarionF | 30 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayden CooperG | 30 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Trevor HennigG | 25 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyran MasonG | 22 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Maki JohnsonG | 21 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Elton SmithF | 20 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Kendall CampbellF | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colt BusseG | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Arizona St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulius MurauskasF | 40 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| Joel FoxwellG | 40 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Dillan ShawG | 31 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| Filip MalesevicC | 25 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| JRob CroyG | 25 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Emmanuel InnocentiG | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ben DeftyC | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce FordG | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |