Who will win ETSU vs Marshall?
The model gives Marshall a 54% chance to beat East Tennessee State, with a projected score of Marshall 75, ETSU 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marshall | |||||
| OtshudiG · 32 min | 19.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 20+ 46% | |
| SlayG · 28 min | 12.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 15+ 36% | |
| OshodiG · 19 min | 9.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 41% | |
| ManyuonG · 26 min | 7.1 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 5+ 65% | |
 ETSU | |||||
| WardG · 34 min | 15.3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 15+ 50% | |
| MasonG · 28 min | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 15+ 37% | |
| HennigG · 25 min | 10.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 10+ 50% | |
| CooperG · 26 min | 9.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 10+ 41% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Noah Otshudi: ETSU 49%Marshall 51%
The white mark is the call with him: Marshall 54%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Marshall without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall | ||||
| Noah Otshudi | 1.0 | 51% | −3 | 74–74 |
| Colt Langdon | 0.7 | 52% | −2 | 74–75 |
| Khaman Maker | 0.6 | 52% | −2 | 74–75 |
| Emmanuel Manyuon | 0.5 | 52% | −2 | 74–75 |
| ETSU | ||||
| Tyran Mason | 1.4 | 60% | +6 | 73–76 |
| Marqus Marion | 1.1 | 59% | +5 | 73–75 |
| Trevor Hennig | 0.7 | 57% | +3 | 73–75 |
| Jayden Cooper | 0.7 | 57% | +3 | 73–75 |
Change is in Marshall's win chance, in points. Scores read ETSU, then Marshall. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| ETSU | Marshall | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.5 152nd | 103.8 188th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.1 153rd | 107.6 165th |
| Possessions a game | 68.5 354th | 72.7 29th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.1% 79th | 51.7% 97th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.1% 78th | 49.5% 111th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.6% 325th | 18.6% 244th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 52nd | 29.7% 292nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 328th | 0.21 360th |
The widest gap: ETSU's defense (153rd) against Marshall's offense (188th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- ETSU 35, Marshall 35
- First-half margin
- Marshall by 0.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.7
- Projected second half
- ETSU 39, Marshall 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- ETSU, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.7 scored, 32.3 allowed
- Marshall, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 36.7 scored, 32.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
ETSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJ WardG | 34 | 15.3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 57% | |||||
| Marqus MarionF | 29 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Tyran MasonG | 28 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Jayden CooperG | 26 | 9.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Trevor HennigG | 25 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Kendall CampbellF | 17 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 59% | |||||
| Maki JohnsonG | 15 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Elton SmithF | 11 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
Marshall
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah OtshudiG | 32 | 19.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 0.9 |
| 20+ pts 46% · 4+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Bryce SlayG | 28 | 12.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Emmanuel ManyuonG | 26 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Fazl OshodiG | 19 | 9.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Luke RasmussenG | 19 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Khaman MakerC | 18 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 5+ reb 52% | |||||
| Erich HardingF | 18 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 57% | |||||
| Colt LangdonF | 14 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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