Who will win Longwood vs ETSU?
The model gives East Tennessee State a 79% chance to beat Longwood, with a projected score of ETSU 79, Longwood 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ETSU | |||||
| WardG · 33 min | 15.6 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 15+ 53% | |
| MasonG · 27 min | 13.5 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 15+ 40% | |
| HennigG · 24 min | 10.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 10+ 53% | |
| CooperG · 26 min | 9.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 44% | |
 Longwood | |||||
| Billups IIIG · 28 min | 11.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 10+ 61% | |
| BenardG · 24 min | 11.0 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 55% | |
| WilliamsG · 24 min | 9.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 10+ 41% | |
| RobinsonG · 16 min | 8.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tyran Mason: Longwood 25%ETSU 75%
The white mark is the call with him: ETSU 79%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | ETSU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETSU | ||||
| Tyran Mason | 1.4 | 75% | −4 | 70–78 |
| Marqus Marion | 1.1 | 76% | −3 | 70–78 |
| Trevor Hennig | 0.7 | 77% | −2 | 70–78 |
| Jayden Cooper | 0.7 | 77% | −2 | 70–78 |
Change is in ETSU's win chance, in points. Scores read Longwood, then ETSU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Longwood 3-1WLWW
- Nov 10W 101-45vs St. Mary's (MD)
- Nov 7W 80-75vs NC CentralDidn't cover −12.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 4L 73-82at Saint Joseph's
- Nov 2W 123-67vs Pfeiffer
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 94.2 and allowing 67.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Longwood | ETSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.0 227th | 105.5 152nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.0 289th | 107.1 153rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 87th | 68.5 354th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.8% 163rd | 52.1% 79th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.9% 212th | 49.1% 78th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.1% 80th | 19.6% 325th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.6% 256th | 34.1% 52nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 314th | 0.23 328th |
The widest gap: ETSU's offense (152nd) against Longwood's defense (289th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Longwood 32, ETSU 37
- First-half margin
- ETSU by 5.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.5
- Projected second half
- Longwood 37, ETSU 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Longwood, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 42.8 scored, 28.0 allowed
- ETSU, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.7 scored, 32.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Longwood
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphonzo Billups IIIG | 28 | 11.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jaylen BenardG | 24 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| MJ WilliamsG | 24 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Lazar MilosevicF | 18 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| TJ RobinsonG | 16 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Elijah KellyG | 16 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Kany MusungayF | 16 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Jorke AavG | 15 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
ETSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJ WardG | 33 | 15.6 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 56% · 5+ ast 45% | |||||
| Marqus MarionF | 28 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Tyran MasonG | 27 | 13.5 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jayden CooperG | 26 | 9.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Trevor HennigG | 24 | 10.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Kendall CampbellF | 17 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Maki JohnsonG | 15 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Elton SmithF | 11 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…