Longwood at Old Dominion
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Chartway Arena. Longwood our rank 248 · 3-1; Old Dominion our rank 155 · 4-0.
Who will win Longwood vs Old Dominion?
The model gives Old Dominion a 77% chance to beat Longwood, with a projected score of Old Dominion 78, Longwood 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion | |||||
| WigginsG · 30 min | 12.6 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 15+ 34% | |
| HolimanG · 28 min | 12.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 10+ 65% | |
| TurnerF · 22 min | 8.0 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 10+ 33% | |
| BenjaminG · 23 min | 7.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 10+ 32% | |
| Longwood | |||||
| Billups IIIG · 28 min | 11.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 10+ 61% | |
| BenardG · 24 min | 11.0 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 55% | |
| WilliamsG · 24 min | 9.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 10+ 41% | |
| RobinsonG · 16 min | 8.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Bubu Benjamin: Longwood 26%Old Dominion 74%
The white mark is the call with him: Old Dominion 77%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Old Dominion without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion | ||||
| Bubu Benjamin | 0.9 | 74% | −3 | 70–77 |
| Adante' Holiman | 0.8 | 74% | −3 | 70–77 |
| Zacch Wiggins | 0.5 | 75% | −2 | 70–78 |
Change is in Old Dominion's win chance, in points. Scores read Longwood, then Old Dominion. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Longwood 3-1WLWW
- Nov 10W 101-45vs St. Mary's (MD)
- Nov 7W 80-75vs NC CentralDidn't cover −12.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 4L 73-82at Saint Joseph's
- Nov 2W 123-67vs Pfeiffer
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 94.2 and allowing 67.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Old Dominion 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 71-60at Norfolk StCovered −6.5 · Under 136.5
- Nov 7W 82-62at BucknellCovered −5.5 · Over 140.5
- Nov 4W 91-47vs Regent
- Nov 2W 61-49vs W Michigan
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 76.2 and allowing 54.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Longwood | Old Dominion | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.0 227th | 101.7 234th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.0 289th | 104.7 110th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 87th | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.8% 163rd | 53.4% 24th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.9% 212th | 48.1% 37th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.1% 80th | 19.2% 299th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.6% 256th | 34.1% 55th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 314th | 0.23 315th |
The widest gap: Old Dominion's defense (110th) against Longwood's offense (227th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Longwood 32, Old Dominion 37
- First-half margin
- Old Dominion by 4.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.2
- Projected second half
- Longwood 37, Old Dominion 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Longwood, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 42.8 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Old Dominion, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 23.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Longwood
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphonzo Billups IIIG | 28 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jaylen BenardG | 24 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| MJ WilliamsG | 24 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Lazar MilosevicF | 18 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| TJ RobinsonG | 16 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Elijah KellyG | 16 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Kany MusungayF | 16 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Jorke AavG | 15 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Old Dominion
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zacch WigginsG | 30 | 12.6 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Adante' HolimanG | 28 | 12.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 45% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Bubu BenjaminG | 23 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Zamoku Weluche-UmeF | 22 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Jared TurnerF | 22 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jotham NwekeF | 18 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Kylan HowzeF | 17 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 55% | |||||
| Khoi ThurmonG | 17 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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