W Michigan 49, Old Dominion 61
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Chartway Arena. W Michigan our rank 194 · 3-1; Old Dominion our rank 155 · 4-0.
Who won W Michigan vs Old Dominion?
Final: Old Dominion 61, Western Michigan 49. Before tip-off the model gave Old Dominion a 65% chance to win, with a projected margin of 4.6 points for Old Dominion. Zacch Wiggins scored 25 for Old Dominion; Augustinas Kiudulas had 12 for W Michigan.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Bubu Benjamin: W Michigan 38%Old Dominion 62%
The white mark is the call with him: Old Dominion 65%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Old Dominion without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion | ||||
| Bubu Benjamin | 0.9 | 62% | −3 | 67–71 |
| Adante' Holiman | 0.8 | 62% | −3 | 67–71 |
| Zacch Wiggins | 0.5 | 63% | −2 | 67–71 |
| W Michigan | ||||
| Jaylen Washington | 1.0 | 67% | +2 | 66–72 |
| Augustinas Kiudulas | 0.8 | 67% | +2 | 66–72 |
| Adam Harakow | 0.5 | 66% | +1 | 66–72 |
Change is in Old Dominion's win chance, in points. Scores read W Michigan, then Old Dominion. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
W Michigan
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Old Dominion
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| W Michigan | Old Dominion | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.8 203rd | 101.7 234th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.2 200th | 104.7 110th |
| Possessions a game | 69.8 286th | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.6% 21st | 53.4% 24th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.7% 52nd | 48.1% 37th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.2% 200th | 19.2% 299th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.5% 137th | 34.1% 55th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 334th | 0.23 315th |
The widest gap: Old Dominion's defense (110th) against W Michigan's offense (203rd), of 365 teams.
First half
Old Dominion led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.5 points and the total by 10.8.
- At halftime
- W Michigan 24, Old Dominion 30
- Projected halftime score
- W Michigan 31, Old Dominion 34
- First-half margin
- Old Dominion by 2.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
W Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner HayhurstG | 34 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2 |
| Jaylen WashingtonG | 32 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Rob Lee Jr.G | 30 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Augustinas KiudulasF | 26 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| Adam HarakowG | 23 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason BendingerG | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Julien GomezG | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan SigmonG | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Joshua EliF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Old Dominion
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zacch WigginsG | 37 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared TurnerF | 27 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| Khoi ThurmonG | 27 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Bubu BenjaminG | 24 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Kylan HowzeF | 19 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Zamoku Weluche-UmeF | 17 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Scottie HubbardG | 17 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jotham NwekeF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adante' HolimanG | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |