W Michigan at S Indiana
Sunday, November 15, 2026, 4:30 PM ET at Liberty Arena (IN). W Michigan our rank 194 · 3-1; S Indiana our rank 315 · 1-3.
Who will win W Michigan vs S Indiana?
The model gives Western Michigan a 65% chance to beat Southern Indiana, with a projected score of W Michigan 73, S Indiana 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Michigan | |||||
| WashingtonG · 28 min | 12.1 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 10+ 62% | |
| Lee Jr.G · 24 min | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 61% | |
| KiudulasF · 26 min | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 10+ 59% | |
| BendingerG · 24 min | 11.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 59% | |
| S Indiana | |||||
| BrownG · 31 min | 11.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 10+ 61% | |
| TrnkaG · 29 min | 10.0 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 10+ 48% | |
| SyllaG · 22 min | 7.4 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 5+ 68% | |
| SmithG · 22 min | 6.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jaylen Washington: W Michigan 62%S Indiana 38%
The white mark is the call with him: W Michigan 65%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | W Michigan without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Michigan | ||||
| Jaylen Washington | 1.0 | 62% | −3 | 73–69 |
| Augustinas Kiudulas | 0.8 | 63% | −2 | 73–69 |
| Adam Harakow | 0.5 | 64% | −1 | 73–69 |
Change is in W Michigan's win chance, in points. Scores read W Michigan, then S Indiana. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
W Michigan 3-1LWWW
- Nov 12W 81-59at Purdue FWCovered −2.5 · Under 153.5
- Nov 8W 87-71vs CampbellCovered −4.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 5W 99-52vs Kalamazoo
- Nov 2L 49-61at Old Dominion
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 79.0 and allowing 60.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| W Michigan | S Indiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.8 203rd | 94.7 342nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.2 200th | 109.9 226th |
| Possessions a game | 69.8 286th | 70.6 209th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.6% 21st | 48.7% 305th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.7% 52nd | 49.2% 82nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.2% 200th | 18.4% 221st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.5% 137th | 34.8% 29th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 334th | 0.24 276th |
The widest gap: W Michigan's defense (200th) against S Indiana's offense (342nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- W Michigan 34, S Indiana 32
- First-half margin
- W Michigan by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.5
- Projected second half
- W Michigan 39, S Indiana 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- W Michigan, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 36.2 scored, 28.0 allowed
- S Indiana, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 34.5 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
W Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen WashingtonG | 28 | 12.1 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 56% | |||||
| Tanner HayhurstG | 27 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Augustinas KiudulasF | 26 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Mason BendingerG | 24 | 11.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Adam HarakowG | 24 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
| Rob Lee Jr.G | 24 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Julien GomezG | 20 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Jordan SigmonG | 13 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
S Indiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden BrownG | 31 | 11.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 2.8 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ threes 47% | |||||
| Afan TrnkaG | 29 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Fredy-Salam SyllaG | 22 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Josh SmithG | 22 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Yuto Yamanouchi-WilliamsF | 20 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Josiah DunhamG | 20 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Donovan HunterF | 16 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Johann PautschF | 13 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 49% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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