Who will win S Indiana vs Texas?
The model gives Texas a >99% chance to beat Southern Indiana, with a projected score of Texas 91, S Indiana 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Texas | |||||
| VokietaitisC · 23 min | 18.3 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 20+ 40% | |
| JohnsonG · 24 min | 12.6 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 15+ 34% | |
| PunchF · 22 min | 10.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 10+ 54% | |
| Spears Jr.F · 19 min | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 10+ 44% | |
 S Indiana | |||||
| BrownG · 28 min | 9.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 10+ 42% | |
| TrnkaG · 27 min | 7.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 10+ 32% | |
| SyllaG · 22 min | 6.2 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 5+ 58% | |
| SmithG · 21 min | 5.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5+ 53% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Matas Vokietaitis: S Indiana <1%Texas >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Texas >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Texas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | ||||
| Matas Vokietaitis | 3.9 | >99% | 0 | 59–89 |
| David Punch | 3.9 | >99% | 0 | 59–89 |
| Isaiah Johnson | 3.5 | >99% | 0 | 59–89 |
| Amari Evans | 3.2 | >99% | 0 | 59–89 |
Change is in Texas's win chance, in points. Scores read S Indiana, then Texas. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
S Indiana 1-3LWLL
- Nov 11L 70-74at IU IndyCovered +8.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 7L 76-78at EvansvilleCovered +7.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 4W 112-42vs Saint Mary of the Woods
- Nov 2L 54-72at Belmont
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 78.0 and allowing 66.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Texas 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 93-62vs GramblingDidn't cover −37.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 5W 98-50vs Gardner-WebbCovered −40.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 2W 109-59vs Chicago St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 100.0 and allowing 57.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| S Indiana | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.7 342nd | 120.6 8th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.9 226th | 97.4 35th |
| Possessions a game | 70.6 209th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.7% 305th | 54.7% 7th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 82nd | 48.3% 42nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 221st | 16.7% 41st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.8% 29th | 35.3% 19th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 276th | 0.29 54th |
The widest gap: Texas's defense (35th) against S Indiana's offense (342nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- S Indiana 26, Texas 44
- First-half margin
- Texas by 18.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.4
- Projected second half
- S Indiana 32, Texas 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- S Indiana, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 34.5 scored, 26.0 allowed
- Texas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 55.0 scored, 25.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
S Indiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden BrownG | 28 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Afan TrnkaG | 27 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ ast 57% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Fredy-Salam SyllaG | 22 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Josh SmithG | 21 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Yuto Yamanouchi-WilliamsF | 20 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Josiah DunhamG | 20 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Donovan HunterF | 16 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Johann PautschF | 15 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 47% | |||||
Texas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah JohnsonG | 24 | 12.6 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Austin GoosbyG | 23 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Matas VokietaitisC | 23 | 18.3 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 7+ reb 51% | |||||
| David PunchF | 22 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Elyjah FreemanG | 21 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Amari EvansG | 20 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Marcus Spears Jr.F | 19 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Joe SterlingG | 16 | 9.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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