Who won S Indiana vs Belmont?
Final: Belmont 72, Southern Indiana 54. Before tip-off the model gave Belmont a 97% chance to win, with a projected margin of 22.6 points for Belmont. Jack Smiley scored 24 for Belmont; Kaden Brown had 12 for S Indiana.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Jack Smiley: S Indiana 5%Belmont 95%
The white mark is the call with him: Belmont 97%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Belmont without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belmont | ||||
| Jack Smiley | 1.9 | 95% | −2 | 59–79 |
| Jabez Jenkins | 1.3 | 96% | −1 | 58–79 |
| Aleksa Ristic | 0.8 | 96% | −1 | 58–80 |
| Isaiah West | 0.7 | 96% | −1 | 58–80 |
Change is in Belmont's win chance, in points. Scores read S Indiana, then Belmont. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
S Indiana
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Belmont
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| S Indiana | Belmont | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.7 342nd | 106.2 141st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.9 226th | 106.3 136th |
| Possessions a game | 70.6 209th | 71.5 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.7% 305th | 51.7% 96th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 82nd | 50.3% 173rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 221st | 19.7% 327th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.8% 29th | 31.7% 187th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 276th | 0.25 253rd |
The widest gap: Belmont's defense (136th) against S Indiana's offense (342nd), of 365 teams.
First half
Belmont led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 0.6 points and the total by 23.6.
- At halftime
- S Indiana 14, Belmont 27
- Projected halftime score
- S Indiana 26, Belmont 39
- First-half margin
- Belmont by 12.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
S Indiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden BrownG | 29 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| Afan TrnkaG | 25 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Josiah DunhamG | 24 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Johann PautschF | 22 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Donovan HunterF | 22 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Ari GoochG | 18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Yesan WarrenG | 15 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Fredy-Salam SyllaG | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Didier MalengF | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Belmont
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack SmileyG | 36 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Eoin DillonF | 28 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah WestG | 28 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Vincent NeugebauerC | 27 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jabez JenkinsG | 19 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Ethan SageG | 19 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Matthew ZobristG | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kayden FishF | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Aleksa RisticG | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |