W Michigan at Mount St Marys
Friday, November 20, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Knott Arena. W Michigan our rank 194 · 3-1; Mount St Marys our rank 284 · 1-1.
Who will win W Michigan vs Mount St Marys?
The model gives Western Michigan a 56% chance to beat Mount St. Mary's, with a projected score of W Michigan 72, Mount St Marys 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Michigan | |||||
| WashingtonG · 29 min | 12.0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 10+ 62% | |
| Lee Jr.G · 24 min | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 61% | |
| KiudulasF · 26 min | 11.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 10+ 59% | |
| BendingerG · 25 min | 11.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 58% | |
| Mount St Marys | |||||
| Thompson Jr.G · 32 min | 12.5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 10+ 65% | |
| Khadre KebeG · 29 min | 12.4 | 6.5 | 1.4 | 10+ 65% | |
| Jr. ExacteF · 28 min | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 10+ 60% | |
| Arrington Jr.G · 24 min | 7.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jaylen Washington: W Michigan 53%Mount St Marys 47%
The white mark is the call with him: W Michigan 56%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | W Michigan without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Michigan | ||||
| Jaylen Washington | 1.0 | 53% | −3 | 72–71 |
| Augustinas Kiudulas | 0.8 | 54% | −2 | 72–71 |
| Adam Harakow | 0.5 | 55% | −1 | 72–70 |
| Mount St Marys | ||||
| Cade Orness | 0.7 | 59% | +3 | 72–70 |
Change is in W Michigan's win chance, in points. Scores read W Michigan, then Mount St Marys. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
W Michigan 3-1LWWW
- Nov 12W 81-59at Purdue FWCovered −2.5 · Under 153.5
- Nov 8W 87-71vs CampbellCovered −4.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 5W 99-52vs Kalamazoo
- Nov 2L 49-61at Old Dominion
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 79.0 and allowing 60.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Mount St Marys 1-1LW
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 60.0 and allowing 77.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| W Michigan | Mount St Marys | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.8 203rd | 95.6 331st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.2 200th | 107.9 170th |
| Possessions a game | 69.8 286th | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.6% 21st | 47.5% 346th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.7% 52nd | 49.6% 121st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.2% 200th | 18.4% 216th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.5% 137th | 29.6% 301st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 334th | 0.24 265th |
The widest gap: W Michigan's defense (200th) against Mount St Marys's offense (331st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- W Michigan 34, Mount St Marys 33
- First-half margin
- W Michigan by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.7
- Projected second half
- W Michigan 38, Mount St Marys 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- W Michigan, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 36.2 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Mount St Marys, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 22.5 scored, 36.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
W Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen WashingtonG | 29 | 12.0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 54% | |||||
| Tanner HayhurstG | 27 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Augustinas KiudulasF | 26 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Mason BendingerG | 25 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Adam HarakowG | 24 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
| Rob Lee Jr.G | 24 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Julien GomezG | 20 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Jordan SigmonG | 12 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Mount St Marys
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redd Thompson Jr.G | 32 | 12.5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 4+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Abdou Khadre KebeG | 29 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 7+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Wilguens Jr. ExacteF | 28 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Anthony Arrington Jr.G | 24 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Yakhya DiopF | 23 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 7+ reb 44% | |||||
| Cade OrnessG | 17 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Anastasios RozakeasG | 16 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Noah LimolF | 14 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…