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Probable Stats / Men's / Tuesday, November 17

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Old Dominion at Virginia

Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at John Paul Jones Arena. Old Dominion our rank 155 · 4-0; Virginia AP 6, our rank 16 · 4-0.

Who will win Old Dominion vs Virginia?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Virginia a 99% chance to beat Old Dominion, with a projected score of Virginia 85, Old Dominion 61.

To winVirginia 99%Old Dominion 1%
Projected score61–85Old Dominion, then Virginia
Margin24.4Virginia · no line posted
Total146.5no line posted
First half28–41Virginia ahead 89%
Old Dominion by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40Virginia by 50Model: Virginia by 24.4Old Dominion by 10by 10by 30Virginia by 50Model: Virginia by 24.4

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Virginia
De RidderF · 24 min16.06.82.215+ 55%
LewisG · 26 min13.03.61.915+ 36%
MalloryG · 24 min12.93.24.515+ 36%
GrunlohC · 25 min11.26.31.510+ 57%
Old Dominion
HolimanG · 27 min9.81.31.410+ 47%
WigginsG · 29 min9.73.21.410+ 46%
TurnerF · 21 min6.43.90.55+ 59%
BenjaminG · 22 min6.31.91.05+ 58%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Thijs De Ridder: Old Dominion 3%Virginia 97%

The white mark is the call with him: Virginia 99%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsVirginia without himChangeProjected score
Virginia
Thijs De Ridder4.297%−263–83
Johann Grunloh4.097%−263–83
Chance Mallory3.997%−263–83
Sam Lewis3.497%−263–84
Old Dominion
Bubu Benjamin0.999%061–86
Adante' Holiman0.899%061–86
Zacch Wiggins0.599%061–86

Change is in Virginia's win chance, in points. Scores read Old Dominion, then Virginia. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Old Dominion 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 11W 71-60at Norfolk StCovered −6.5 · Under 136.5
    2. Nov 7W 82-62at BucknellCovered −5.5 · Over 140.5
    3. Nov 4W 91-47vs Regent
    4. Nov 2W 61-49vs W Michigan
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 76.2 and allowing 54.5
    Against the spread, this season
    2–0
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    Virginia 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 10W 95-61vs BucknellDidn't cover −38.5 · Over 151.5
    2. Nov 8W 91-72vs ArkansasCovered −3.5 · Over 162.5
    3. Nov 6W 97-72vs NortheasternDidn't cover −34.5 · Over 159.5
    4. Nov 3W 89-60vs Drexel
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 93.0 and allowing 66.2
    Against the spread, this season
    1–2
    Totals, this season
    3 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    Old DominionVirginia
    Points scored per 100 possessions101.7 234th119.9 14th
    Points allowed per 100104.7 110th95.9 26th
    Possessions a game70.2 245th70.6 209th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)53.4% 24th52.3% 71st
    Opponents' shooting48.1% 37th50.9% 210th
    Turnovers, share of possessions19.2% 299th18.3% 211th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses34.1% 55th36.0% 8th
    Free throws per shot0.23 315th0.23 327th

    The widest gap: Virginia's defense (26th) against Old Dominion's offense (234th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Old Dominion 28, Virginia 41
    First-half margin
    Virginia by 13.4
    First-half points, both teams
    68.7
    Projected second half
    Old Dominion 33, Virginia 44
    Second-half points, both teams
    77.8
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Old Dominion, first halves so far
    Led 4 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 23.0 allowed
    Virginia, first halves so far
    Led 4 of 4 · 47.0 scored, 29.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Old Dominion

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Zacch WigginsG299.73.21.40.8
    10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 53%
    Adante' HolimanG279.81.31.42.1
    10+ pts 47% · 2+ ast 40% · 2+ threes 55%
    Bubu BenjaminG226.31.91.00.9
    5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 57%
    Zamoku Weluche-UmeF225.74.80.60.5
    5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 36%
    Jared TurnerF216.43.90.51.4
    5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 38%
    Jotham NwekeF184.43.30.40.3
    5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 27%
    Kylan HowzeF174.83.50.40.0
    5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 44%
    Khoi ThurmonG174.11.71.80.3
    5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 51%

    Virginia

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Sam LewisG2613.03.61.91.8
    15+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 49%
    Johann GrunlohC2511.26.31.50.7
    10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 49%
    Chance MalloryG2412.93.24.51.8
    15+ pts 36% · 5+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 48%
    Thijs De RidderF2416.06.82.21.2
    15+ pts 55% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 61%
    Nolan AdekunleF238.84.01.51.2
    10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 41%
    Kalu AnyaF143.23.41.80.2
    5+ pts 27% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 52%
    Elijah GertrudeG135.22.21.70.8
    5+ pts 48% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 50%
    Jan VideG135.32.02.20.1
    5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 61%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Tue, Nov 17

    All games
    1. 7 PMprojected 74-82Illinois at Duke, men's: game page
    2. 7 PMprojected 74-72Villanova at Pitt, men's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 81-81Mississippi St at UCF, men's: game page
    4. 7:30 PMprojected 79-79Arkansas vs Indiana, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 72-73Michigan St at Tennessee, men's: game page
    6. 11:59 PMprojected 69-75West Virginia vs Auburn, men's: game page
    Old Dominion next: vs Longwood, Sat, Nov 14 · 77%Virginia next: at Maryland, Fri, Nov 13 · 62%Old Dominion: schedule and oddsVirginia: schedule and odds