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Probable Stats / Men's / Wednesday, November 18

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VMI at Longwood

Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Joan Perry Brock Center. VMI our rank 288 · 2-2; Longwood our rank 248 · 3-1.

Who will win VMI vs Longwood?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Longwood a 66% chance to beat VMI, with a projected score of Longwood 78, VMI 73.

To winLongwood 66%VMI 34%
Projected score73–78VMI, then Longwood
Margin4.8Longwood · no line posted
Total150.6no line posted
First half34–37Longwood ahead 59%
VMI by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Longwood by 30Model: Longwood by 4.8VMI by 30by 10by 10Longwood by 30Model: Longwood by 4.8

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Longwood
Billups IIIG · 28 min13.13.42.015+ 37%
BenardG · 24 min12.16.21.810+ 62%
WilliamsG · 24 min10.03.23.110+ 48%
RobinsonG · 16 min8.92.32.010+ 40%
VMI
JohnsonF · 30 min18.04.90.920+ 39%
Bradley Jr.G · 30 min13.95.33.315+ 42%
DaushviliF · 26 min9.37.20.910+ 43%
JohnsonG · 26 min8.34.11.410+ 35%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    VMI 2-2WLLW

    1. Nov 11W 65-51vs NC CentralCovered −7.5 · Under 147.5
    2. Nov 7L 68-70at UTSACovered +5.5 · Under 163.5
    3. Nov 5L 70-95at SMUDidn't cover +24.5 · Over 160.5
    4. Nov 2W 115-83vs Virginia Lynchburg
    Last 4
    2–2, scoring 79.5 and allowing 74.8
    Against the spread, this season
    2–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 2 under

    Longwood 3-1WLWW

    1. Nov 10W 101-45vs St. Mary's (MD)
    2. Nov 7W 80-75vs NC CentralDidn't cover −12.5 · Over 149.5
    3. Nov 4L 73-82at Saint Joseph's
    4. Nov 2W 123-67vs Pfeiffer
    Last 4
    3–1, scoring 94.2 and allowing 67.2
    Against the spread, this season
    0–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    VMILongwood
    Points scored per 100 possessions97.5 309th102.0 227th
    Points allowed per 100110.1 231st112.0 289th
    Possessions a game71.3 121st71.7 87th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)47.5% 347th50.8% 163rd
    Opponents' shooting49.8% 135th50.9% 212th
    Turnovers, share of possessions19.6% 322nd17.1% 80th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses34.5% 35th30.6% 256th
    Free throws per shot0.29 51st0.23 314th

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    VMI 34, Longwood 37
    First-half margin
    Longwood by 2.6
    First-half points, both teams
    70.7
    Projected second half
    VMI 39, Longwood 41
    Second-half points, both teams
    79.9
    Tied at the half
    4%
    VMI, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 4 · 38.8 scored, 32.8 allowed
    Longwood, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 4 · 42.8 scored, 28.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    VMI

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Rickey Bradley Jr.G3013.95.33.31.2
    15+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 42%
    TJ JohnsonF3018.04.90.93.6
    20+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 51% · 4+ threes 45%
    Trap JohnsonG268.34.11.41.5
    10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 41%
    Alexander DaushviliF269.37.20.90.7
    10+ pts 43% · 7+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 47%
    Paulius NarvilasF246.54.90.70.3
    5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 24%
    Rokas ZilysG186.82.31.50.7
    5+ pts 63% · 2+ ast 42% · 1+ threes 48%
    AJ ClarkG166.22.71.10.3
    31% to play · 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 29%
    Joao PanzoF143.52.90.90.2
    5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 23%

    Longwood

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Alphonzo Billups IIIG2813.13.42.02.1
    15+ pts 37% · 2+ ast 57% · 2+ threes 57%
    Jaylen BenardG2412.16.21.81.5
    10+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 50%
    MJ WilliamsG2410.03.23.11.8
    10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 50%
    Lazar MilosevicF185.02.81.10.4
    5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 32%
    TJ RobinsonG168.92.32.00.4
    10+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 57%
    Elijah KellyG163.63.10.80.4
    5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 34%
    Kany MusungayF164.54.00.50.5
    5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 36%
    Jorke AavG154.51.91.00.9
    5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 54%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Wed, Nov 18

    All games
    1. 7 PMprojected 77-81FGCU at FAU, men's: game page
    2. 7 PMprojected 68-75James Madison at Towson, men's: game page
    3. 8 PMprojected 71-66Boston College at Harvard, men's: game page
    4. 8 PMprojected 77-74Wichita St at Loyola Chicago, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 74-76UConn at Arizona, men's: game page
    6. 10 PMprojected 75-75Washington St vs Hawai'i, men's: game page
    VMI next: vs Gardner-Webb, Sat, Nov 21 · 80%Longwood next: at Old Dominion, Sat, Nov 14 · 23%VMI: schedule and oddsLongwood: schedule and odds