Probable Stats
Menu
Get predictions by email
Men'sWomen's

Probable Stats / Men's / Saturday, November 21

Men'sWomen's
Get predictions by email

Gardner-Webb at VMI

Saturday, November 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET at Cameron Hall. Gardner-Webb our rank 355 · 1-2; VMI our rank 288 · 2-2.

Who will win Gardner-Webb vs VMI?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives VMI a 80% chance to beat Gardner-Webb, with a projected score of VMI 78, Gardner-Webb 68.

To winVMI 80%Gardner-Webb 20%
Projected score68–78Gardner-Webb, then VMI
Margin9.7VMI · no line posted
Total145.9no line posted
First half32–37VMI ahead 69%
Gardner-Webb by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30VMI by 40Model: VMI by 9.7Gardner-Webb by 20Evenby 20VMI by 40Model: VMI by 9.7

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
VMI
JohnsonF · 30 min18.85.11.020+ 43%
Bradley Jr.G · 30 min14.55.63.715+ 46%
DaushviliF · 26 min9.77.51.010+ 46%
JohnsonG · 26 min8.74.31.610+ 38%
Gardner-Webb
BrownG · 25 min11.12.31.710+ 56%
PocknettF · 25 min9.55.70.910+ 44%
HudsonG · 23 min8.72.71.110+ 39%
FerereG · 20 min8.32.71.010+ 36%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Gardner-Webb 1-2LLW

    1. Nov 11W 88-66vs Erskine
    2. Nov 5L 50-98at TexasDidn't cover +40.5 · Under 154.5
    3. Nov 2L 46-86at UConn
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 61.3 and allowing 83.3
    Against the spread, this season
    0–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 1 under

    VMI 2-2WLLW

    1. Nov 11W 65-51vs NC CentralCovered −7.5 · Under 147.5
    2. Nov 7L 68-70at UTSACovered +5.5 · Under 163.5
    3. Nov 5L 70-95at SMUDidn't cover +24.5 · Over 160.5
    4. Nov 2W 115-83vs Virginia Lynchburg
    Last 4
    2–2, scoring 79.5 and allowing 74.8
    Against the spread, this season
    2–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 2 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    Gardner-WebbVMI
    Points scored per 100 possessions92.9 353rd97.5 309th
    Points allowed per 100114.7 332nd110.1 231st
    Possessions a game71.6 95th71.3 121st
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)48.0% 334th47.5% 347th
    Opponents' shooting52.6% 316th49.8% 135th
    Turnovers, share of possessions20.2% 346th19.6% 322nd
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses26.9% 358th34.5% 35th
    Free throws per shot0.29 46th0.29 51st

    The widest gap: VMI's defense (231st) against Gardner-Webb's offense (353rd), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Gardner-Webb 32, VMI 37
    First-half margin
    VMI by 5.3
    First-half points, both teams
    68.5
    Projected second half
    Gardner-Webb 37, VMI 41
    Second-half points, both teams
    77.5
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Gardner-Webb, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 25.7 scored, 42.0 allowed
    VMI, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 4 · 38.8 scored, 32.8 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Gardner-Webb

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Seth BrownG2511.12.31.72.1
    10+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 56%
    Mikhali PocknettF259.55.70.90.1
    10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 24%
    Sam NosakhareC241.85.90.40.0
    6+ reb 51%
    Jacob HudsonG238.72.71.10.6
    10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 45%
    Rue WellsG217.02.41.60.7
    5+ pts 65% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 47%
    Jamias FerereG208.32.71.00.9
    10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 57%
    Ace TalbertG205.31.71.31.1
    5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 62%
    Jackson SkipperF205.43.20.91.1
    5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 62%

    VMI

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Rickey Bradley Jr.G3014.55.63.71.3
    15+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 49%
    TJ JohnsonF3018.85.11.03.7
    20+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 54% · 4+ threes 47%
    Trap JohnsonG268.74.31.61.5
    10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 45%
    Alexander DaushviliF269.77.51.00.7
    10+ pts 46% · 8+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 48%
    Paulius NarvilasF246.85.10.80.3
    5+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 24%
    Rokas ZilysG187.22.41.70.7
    5+ pts 67% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 49%
    AJ ClarkG166.62.91.20.3
    31% to play · 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 33%
    Joao PanzoF143.73.11.00.2
    5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 27%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sat, Nov 21

    All games
    1. 2 PMprojected 81-77New Mexico at Wichita St, men's: game page
    2. 3 PMprojected 76-78St Thomas at Milwaukee, men's: game page
    3. 4 PMprojected 73-74C Arkansas at Jacksonville, men's: game page
    4. 4 PMprojected 73-76South Florida at George Mason, men's: game page
    5. 4 PMprojected 75-75Penn at La Salle, men's: game page
    6. 7 PMprojected 79-74Michigan at Villanova, men's: game page
    Gardner-Webb next: at South Carolina, Sat, Nov 14 · 1%VMI next: at Longwood, Wed, Nov 18 · 34%Gardner-Webb: schedule and oddsVMI: schedule and odds