Northern Iowa at Michigan St
Friday, November 13, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Breslin Center. Northern Iowa our rank 128 · 2-1; Michigan St AP 5, our rank 6 · 3-0.
Who will win Northern Iowa vs Michigan St?
The model gives Michigan State a 99% chance to beat Northern Iowa, with a projected score of Michigan St 89, Northern Iowa 62. The spread is Michigan St −28.5, with an over/under of 154.5. The model makes it Michigan St by 26.8, 1.8 points toward Northern Iowa, and projects 151 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan St | |||||
| Fears Jr.G · 28 min | 15.1 | 2.8 | 10.4 | 15+ 50% | |
| CarrF · 22 min | 11.0 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 10+ 55% | |
| JervisG · 25 min | 10.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 10+ 53% | |
| ScottF · 26 min | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 10+ 42% | |
| Northern Iowa | |||||
| UelmenG · 29 min | 15.2 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 15+ 50% | |
| VisG · 27 min | 11.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 10+ 59% | |
| Johnson-AriguF · 24 min | 11.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 10+ 58% | |
| McCubbinG · 29 min | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jeremy Fears Jr.: Northern Iowa 3%Michigan St 97%
The white mark is the call with him: Michigan St 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Michigan St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan St | ||||
| Jeremy Fears Jr. | 5.5 | 97% | −2 | 65–86 |
| Jordan Scott | 3.9 | 98% | −1 | 64–87 |
| Coen Carr | 3.8 | 98% | −1 | 64–87 |
| Jesse McCulloch | 2.7 | 98% | −1 | 64–88 |
| Northern Iowa | ||||
| Isaiah Johnson-Arigu | 1.4 | 99% | 0 | 62–90 |
| Greyson Uelmen | 1.2 | 99% | 0 | 62–90 |
| Ian Smikle | 0.7 | 99% | 0 | 62–89 |
| Tate McCubbin | 0.6 | 99% | 0 | 62–89 |
Change is in Michigan St's win chance, in points. Scores read Northern Iowa, then Michigan St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Michigan St −28.5 | 154.5 |
| Model | Michigan St −26.8 | 151.2 |
| Gap | 1.8 toward Northern Iowa | 3.3 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Northern Iowa 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 89-76vs Green BayCovered −3.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 7L 83-98at FurmanDidn't cover +4.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 3W 106-70vs Cornell (IA)
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 92.7 and allowing 81.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Michigan St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 79-73vs DukeCovered +7.5 · Over 147.5
- Nov 5W 91-61vs ToledoCovered −26.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2W 96-59vs Quinnipiac
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 88.7 and allowing 64.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Northern Iowa | Michigan St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.7 106th | 121.4 5th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.8 193rd | 91.8 9th |
| Possessions a game | 69.3 322nd | 70.9 171st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.1% 16th | 53.5% 23rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.1% 287th | 47.0% 16th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.4% 101st | 18.4% 224th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 240th | 34.4% 37th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 171st | 0.29 50th |
The widest gap: Michigan St's offense (5th) against Northern Iowa's defense (193rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Northern Iowa 28, Michigan St 43
- First-half margin
- Michigan St by 14.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.9
- Projected second half
- Northern Iowa 34, Michigan St 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Northern Iowa, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 38.7 allowed
- Michigan St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 24.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Northern Iowa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tate McCubbinG | 29 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Greyson UelmenG | 29 | 15.2 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Carson VisG | 27 | 11.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Isaiah Johnson-AriguF | 24 | 11.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Levi ValdoG | 19 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Ian SmikleF | 17 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Geon HutchinsG | 16 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Kyle PockF | 14 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Michigan St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr.G | 28 | 15.1 | 2.8 | 10.4 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 49% · 11+ ast 46% | |||||
| Jordan ScottF | 26 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Jasiah JervisG | 25 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 2+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Coen CarrF | 22 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Anton BonkeC | 18 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 7+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Jesse McCullochF | 17 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Cam WardF | 16 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 46% | |||||
| Carlos Medlock Jr.G | 14 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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