Quinnipiac 59, Michigan St 96
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Breslin Center. Quinnipiac our rank 265 · 2-2; Michigan St AP 5, our rank 6 · 3-0.
Who won Quinnipiac vs Michigan St?
Final: Michigan State 96, Quinnipiac 59. Before tip-off the model gave Michigan State a >99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 33.5 points for Michigan State. Jeremy Fears Jr. scored 13 for Michigan St; Tayeshawn Cunningham-Pemberton had 11 for Quinnipiac.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Jeremy Fears Jr.: Quinnipiac 1%Michigan St 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Michigan St >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Michigan St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan St | ||||
| Jeremy Fears Jr. | 5.5 | 99% | −1 | 54–82 |
| Jordan Scott | 3.9 | 99% | −1 | 53–83 |
| Coen Carr | 3.8 | 99% | −1 | 53–83 |
| Jesse McCulloch | 2.7 | 99% | −1 | 52–83 |
| Quinnipiac | ||||
| Keith McKnight | 0.8 | >99% | 0 | 51–85 |
Change is in Michigan St's win chance, in points. Scores read Quinnipiac, then Michigan St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Quinnipiac
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Michigan St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Quinnipiac | Michigan St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.5 257th | 121.4 5th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.6 283rd | 91.8 9th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 70.9 171st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.9% 230th | 53.5% 23rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.8% 203rd | 47.0% 16th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 121st | 18.4% 224th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 130th | 34.4% 37th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 291st | 0.29 50th |
The widest gap: Michigan St's offense (5th) against Quinnipiac's defense (283rd), of 365 teams.
First half
Michigan St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 9.6 points and the total by 12.3.
- At halftime
- Quinnipiac 24, Michigan St 52
- Projected halftime score
- Quinnipiac 23, Michigan St 41
- First-half margin
- Michigan St by 18.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Quinnipiac
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas SekasiG | 29 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Keith McKnightF | 25 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Nate GuerengombaG | 24 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Tayeshawn Cunningham-PembertonG | 22 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Nedas CholevinskasF | 19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Ali DioufF | 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Nas HartF | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Holden Pierre-LouisF | 14 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Tai TurnageG | 14 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Michigan St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr.G | 26 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Coen CarrF | 25 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| Jasiah JervisG | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan ScottF | 22 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Anton BonkeC | 20 | 11 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam WardF | 16 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Kur TengG | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Ethan TaylorC | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Medlock Jr.G | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 1 |