Towson 70, Santa Clara 89
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at Leavey Center. Towson our rank 124 · 2-2; Santa Clara our rank 75 · 4-0.
Who won Towson vs Santa Clara?
Final: Santa Clara 89, Towson 70. Before tip-off the model gave Santa Clara a 92% chance to win, with a projected margin of 16.8 points for Santa Clara. Brad Longcor III scored 18 for Santa Clara; Zion Stanford had 15 for Towson.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Jake Ensminger: Towson 12%Santa Clara 88%
The white mark is the call with him: Santa Clara 92%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Santa Clara without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | ||||
| Jake Ensminger | 2.4 | 88% | −4 | 60–75 |
| Sash Gavalyugov | 2.0 | 89% | −3 | 60–75 |
| Thierry Darlan | 1.5 | 89% | −3 | 60–75 |
| Fedor Zugic | 1.3 | 90% | −2 | 60–75 |
| Towson | ||||
| Zion Stanford | 1.3 | 93% | +1 | 58–76 |
| Jaquan Womack | 1.3 | 93% | +1 | 58–76 |
| Caleb Embeya | 0.8 | 93% | +1 | 59–76 |
| Chike Ndefo | 0.8 | 92% | 0 | 59–76 |
Change is in Santa Clara's win chance, in points. Scores read Towson, then Santa Clara. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Towson
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Santa Clara
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Towson | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.8 185th | 111.7 78th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 103.6 102nd | 101.7 77th |
| Possessions a game | 68.9 337th | 72.8 26th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.9% 150th | 50.7% 172nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.1% 76th | 48.7% 54th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.6% 253rd | 18.1% 184th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.7% 14th | 31.9% 172nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 311th | 0.24 266th |
The widest gap: Santa Clara's defense (77th) against Towson's offense (185th), of 365 teams.
First half
Santa Clara led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.3 points and the total by 14.8.
- At halftime
- Towson 35, Santa Clara 43
- Projected halftime score
- Towson 27, Santa Clara 36
- First-half margin
- Santa Clara by 9.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Towson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion StanfordG | 33 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaquan WomackG | 30 | 15 | 12 | 0 | 2 |
| Jon BartonG | 25 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Caleb EmbeyaF | 20 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian DoerrG | 20 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Ben RoseboroughG | 19 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex AtkinsonF | 18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Chike NdefoG | 18 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 |
| Mani SajidG | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Santa Clara
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake EnsmingerG | 28 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Sash GavalyugovG | 26 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Brad Longcor IIIG | 24 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Elijah MahiF | 23 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| David CastilloG | 21 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Fedor ZugicG | 20 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Chris TadjoF | 19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Francis ChukwudebeluC | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Thierry DarlanG | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |