Who will win Purdue FW vs Bradley?
The model gives Bradley a 71% chance to beat Purdue Fort Wayne, with a projected score of Bradley 73, Purdue FW 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bradley | |||||
| PaytonG · 33 min | 12.5 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 10+ 65% | |
| ThornbrueF · 25 min | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 10+ 43% | |
| AlarieF · 23 min | 7.9 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 33% | |
| IbukunoluwaF · 24 min | 7.5 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 5+ 69% | |
 Purdue FW | |||||
| Isaac Jr.F · 22 min | 10.3 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 10+ 50% | |
| Craig Jr.G · 28 min | 10.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 10+ 48% | |
| WilliamsonG · 25 min | 7.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 5+ 69% | |
| Thompson IIIG · 18 min | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Timoty van der Knaap: Purdue FW 31%Bradley 69%
The white mark is the call with him: Bradley 71%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Bradley without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley | ||||
| Timoty van der Knaap | 0.9 | 69% | −2 | 67–72 |
| Dietrich Richardson | 0.7 | 69% | −2 | 67–72 |
Change is in Bradley's win chance, in points. Scores read Purdue FW, then Bradley. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Purdue FW 1-2LWL
- Nov 12L 59-81vs W MichiganDidn't cover +2.5 · Under 153.5
- Nov 7W 103-65vs Albion
- Nov 3L 71-78at Duquesne
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 77.7 and allowing 74.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Bradley 2-2WLLW
- Nov 12W 56-54vs Coppin StDidn't cover −13.5 · Under 131.5
- Nov 10L 45-62at DavidsonDidn't cover +10.5 · Under 138.5
- Nov 7L 52-63vs PacificDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 2W 85-41vs Monmouth (IL)
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 59.5 and allowing 55.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–3
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 3 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Purdue FW | Bradley | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.2 287th | 97.3 311th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.5 278th | 104.1 104th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 69.5 307th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.2% 276th | 46.4% 358th |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.1% 333rd | 47.9% 32nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.3% 209th | 21.4% 363rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.3% 344th | 32.9% 111th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 216th | 0.25 255th |
The widest gap: Bradley's defense (104th) against Purdue FW's offense (287th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Purdue FW 31, Bradley 34
- First-half margin
- Bradley by 3.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.3
- Projected second half
- Purdue FW 35, Bradley 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Purdue FW, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 32.3 allowed
- Bradley, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 27.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Purdue FW
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Craig Jr.G | 28 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Ashton WilliamsonG | 25 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| EJ MosleyG | 23 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Anthony Isaac Jr.F | 22 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Edir OrtizF | 21 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Carl Thompson IIIG | 18 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| DeAndre LewisG | 16 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Chris MorganG | 16 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ ast 35% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Bradley
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevon PaytonG | 33 | 12.5 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Ben ThornbrueF | 25 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Timoty van der KnaapG | 24 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Noah WilliamsF | 24 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Josh IbukunoluwaF | 24 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 69% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Xander AlarieF | 23 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Max GaspaG | 23 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Kyle GrillG | 16 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
Missed the last game: Josh Ibukunoluwa (27 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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