Who will win Villanova vs Kansas?
The model gives Kansas a 93% chance to beat Villanova, with a projected score of Kansas 82, Villanova 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas | |||||
| WhiteG · 27 min | 18.0 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 20+ 39% | |
| StokesG · 26 min | 13.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 15+ 39% | |
| Kaufman-RennF · 23 min | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 15+ 34% | |
| Blyden Jr.G · 27 min | 11.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 10+ 57% | |
 Villanova | |||||
| RoyalF · 28 min | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 63% | |
| FiegenG · 27 min | 11.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 61% | |
| SuigoC · 27 min | 11.6 | 7.7 | 1.9 | 10+ 59% | |
| PerkinsG · 29 min | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 10+ 38% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Trey Kaufman-Renn: Villanova 16%Kansas 84%
The white mark is the call with him: Kansas 93%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Kansas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | ||||
| Trey Kaufman-Renn | 5.1 | 84% | −9 | 69–80 |
| Tre White | 4.9 | 85% | −8 | 68–80 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. | 3.8 | 87% | −6 | 68–80 |
| Keanu Dawes | 2.5 | 89% | −4 | 67–81 |
| Villanova | ||||
| Tyler Perkins | 3.8 | 96% | +3 | 64–84 |
| Devin Royal | 3.6 | 96% | +3 | 64–84 |
| Jake Fiegen | 3.1 | 96% | +3 | 64–84 |
| Elijah Crawford | 2.8 | 96% | +3 | 65–84 |
Change is in Kansas's win chance, in points. Scores read Villanova, then Kansas. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Villanova 2-1LWW
- Nov 10W 80-59vs La SalleCovered −20.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 6W 95-66vs Holy CrossDidn't cover −34.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 1L 72-74vs Notre Dame
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.3 and allowing 66.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Villanova | Kansas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 115.0 51st | 120.5 9th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.3 41st | 87.4 1st |
| Possessions a game | 70.2 245th | 71.8 79th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.0% 83rd | 54.2% 11th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.8% 11th | 46.7% 10th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 185th | 18.3% 211th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.0% 163rd | 32.7% 123rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 346th | 0.24 277th |
The widest gap: Kansas's defense (1st) against Villanova's offense (51st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Villanova 30, Kansas 39
- First-half margin
- Kansas by 8.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.6
- Projected second half
- Villanova 36, Kansas 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Villanova, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 40.0 scored, 29.5 allowed
- Kansas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 41.7 scored, 27.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Villanova
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler PerkinsG | 29 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Devin RoyalF | 28 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jake FiegenG | 27 | 11.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Luigi SuigoC | 27 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 8+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Elijah CrawfordG | 27 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Adam OumiddochG | 18 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Darryl Simmons IIG | 17 | 6.7 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ ast 41% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Kwame Evans Jr.F | 15 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Kansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre WhiteG | 27 | 18.0 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| 20+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Leroy Blyden Jr.G | 27 | 11.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 60% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Taylen KinneyG | 26 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Tyran StokesG | 26 | 13.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Trey Kaufman-RennF | 23 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Melvin Council Jr.G | 21 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 0.7 |
| 49% to play · 10+ pts 35% · 4+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Keanu DawesF | 16 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Christian ReevesC | 15 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 6+ reb 44% | |||||
Missed the last game: Melvin Council Jr. (22 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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