Jackson St at Baylor
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET at Foster Pavilion. Jackson St our rank 331 · 1-3; Baylor our rank 28 · 3-0.
Who will win Jackson St vs Baylor?
The model gives Baylor a >99% chance to beat Jackson State, with a projected score of Baylor 94, Jackson St 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | |||||
| Decker Jr.G · 24 min | 14.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 15+ 46% | |
| MingoG · 24 min | 14.3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 15+ 44% | |
| Williams IVG · 23 min | 12.9 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 15+ 36% | |
| MingoG · 22 min | 12.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 15+ 36% | |
| Jackson St | |||||
| WilliamsG · 29 min | 14.4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 15+ 45% | |
| McMillianG · 30 min | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| RuffinG · 23 min | 9.7 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 10+ 46% | |
| WilliamsF · 21 min | 5.7 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 5+ 53% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Isaac Celiscar: Jackson St <1%Baylor >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Baylor >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Baylor without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | ||||
| Isaac Celiscar | 3.4 | >99% | 0 | 61–92 |
| Isaac Williams IV | 3.1 | >99% | 0 | 61–92 |
| Kayden Mingo | 3.0 | >99% | 0 | 61–92 |
| Brett Decker Jr. | 2.6 | >99% | 0 | 60–92 |
Change is in Baylor's win chance, in points. Scores read Jackson St, then Baylor. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Jackson St 1-3LWLL
- Nov 11L 80-84at Southern MissCovered +8.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 9L 57-98at Mississippi StDidn't cover +24.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 5W 87-85at TulaneCovered +12.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 2L 42-76at Texas Tech
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 66.5 and allowing 85.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 3 over, 0 under
Baylor 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 90-61vs YaleCovered −19.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 6W 109-53vs AR-Pine BluffCovered −38.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 2W 87-65vs N'Western St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 95.3 and allowing 59.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Jackson St | Baylor | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.7 329th | 117.6 25th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.0 289th | 95.9 25th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 59th | 72.1 59th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.8% 234th | 51.0% 145th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.0% 219th | 49.9% 138th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.0% 285th | 17.8% 155th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.8% 329th | 34.4% 39th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 338th | 0.28 92nd |
The widest gap: Baylor's defense (25th) against Jackson St's offense (329th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Jackson St 26, Baylor 45
- First-half margin
- Baylor by 19.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.7
- Projected second half
- Jackson St 33, Baylor 48
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Jackson St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 31.2 scored, 40.8 allowed
- Baylor, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.7 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Jackson St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian McMillianG | 30 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Mike WilliamsG | 29 | 14.4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 2+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Daeshun RuffinG | 23 | 9.7 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| 49% to play · 10+ pts 46% · 3+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Delyle WilliamsG | 23 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Nikk WilliamsF | 21 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Chip BruntG | 20 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| DJ DavisG | 19 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| AT ManyuonG | 17 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Missed the last game: Daeshun Ruffin (28 min a game).
Baylor
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayden MingoG | 24 | 14.3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 47% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Brett Decker Jr.G | 24 | 14.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3.2 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 41% · 3+ threes 55% | |||||
| Isaac Williams IVG | 23 | 12.9 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 59% · 5+ ast 46% | |||||
| Isaac CeliscarF | 22 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Dylan MingoG | 22 | 12.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Elijah WilliamsF | 19 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Evan ChatmanF | 18 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Juslin Bodo BodoC | 18 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 7+ reb 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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