Jackson St 42, Texas Tech 76
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at United Supermarkets Arena. Jackson St our rank 331 · 1-3; Texas Tech AP 16, our rank 13 · 3-0.
Who won Jackson St vs Texas Tech?
Final: Texas Tech 76, Jackson State 42. Before tip-off the model gave Texas Tech a >99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 38.5 points for Texas Tech. Damarion Dennis scored 22 for Texas Tech; Mike Williams had 11 for Jackson St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Cruz Davis: Jackson St <1%Texas Tech >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Texas Tech >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Texas Tech without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | ||||
| Cruz Davis | 4.4 | >99% | 0 | 52–87 |
| Jamichael Stillwell | 4.4 | >99% | 0 | 52–87 |
| Donovan Atwell | 4.1 | >99% | 0 | 52–87 |
| Darrion Williams | 3.4 | >99% | 0 | 52–87 |
Change is in Texas Tech's win chance, in points. Scores read Jackson St, then Texas Tech. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Jackson St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Texas Tech
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Jackson St | Texas Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.7 329th | 116.7 31st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.0 289th | 92.1 12th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 59th | 70.3 238th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.8% 234th | 49.0% 288th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.0% 219th | 49.8% 130th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.0% 285th | 18.0% 172nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.8% 329th | 32.6% 132nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 338th | 0.29 68th |
The widest gap: Texas Tech's defense (12th) against Jackson St's offense (329th), of 365 teams.
First half
Texas Tech led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.2 points and the total by 9.2.
- At halftime
- Jackson St 18, Texas Tech 38
- Projected halftime score
- Jackson St 22, Texas Tech 43
- First-half margin
- Texas Tech by 21.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Jackson St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian McMillianG | 33 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Mike WilliamsG | 31 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Daeshun RuffinG | 26 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Nikk WilliamsF | 21 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 1 |
| Chip BruntG | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| AT ManyuonG | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ebo WilsonC | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ DavisG | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake NettlesG | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Texas Tech
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz DavisG | 31 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Donovan AtwellG | 27 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Darrion WilliamsF | 24 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Dra Gibbs-LawhornG | 24 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Josiah MoseleyF | 24 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Damarion DennisG | 23 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| DaKari SpearG | 18 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bassala BagayokoF | 15 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Amari BarrettG | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |