Southern Utah at Texas
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Moody Center. Southern Utah our rank 255 · 3-1; Texas AP 7, our rank 19 · 3-0.
Who will win Southern Utah vs Texas?
The model gives Texas a >99% chance to beat Southern Utah, with a projected score of Texas 96, Southern Utah 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | |||||
| VokietaitisC · 23 min | 19.1 | 7.1 | 0.6 | 20+ 45% | |
| JohnsonG · 24 min | 13.2 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 15+ 38% | |
| PunchF · 22 min | 11.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 10+ 57% | |
| Spears Jr.F · 19 min | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 47% | |
| Southern Utah | |||||
| NichollsF · 17 min | 10.1 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 10+ 49% | |
| FeroahF · 22 min | 8.8 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 10+ 39% | |
| BrelandG · 16 min | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 10+ 35% | |
| BarclayF · 19 min | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Matas Vokietaitis: Southern Utah 1%Texas 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Texas >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Texas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | ||||
| Matas Vokietaitis | 3.9 | 99% | −1 | 67–94 |
| David Punch | 3.9 | 99% | −1 | 67–94 |
| Isaiah Johnson | 3.5 | 99% | −1 | 67–94 |
| Amari Evans | 3.2 | 99% | −1 | 67–94 |
| Southern Utah | ||||
| JaJuan Nicholls | 0.8 | >99% | 0 | 65–96 |
| Jaiden Feroah | 0.7 | >99% | 0 | 65–96 |
Change is in Texas's win chance, in points. Scores read Southern Utah, then Texas. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Southern Utah 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 59-88at High PointDidn't cover +22.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 7W 143-49vs Bethesda
- Nov 5W 97-53vs Grace University
- Nov 2W 134-69vs West Coast Baptist
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 108.2 and allowing 64.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Texas 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 93-62vs GramblingDidn't cover −37.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 5W 98-50vs Gardner-WebbCovered −40.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 2W 109-59vs Chicago St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 100.0 and allowing 57.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Southern Utah | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.3 194th | 120.6 8th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 113.7 318th | 97.4 35th |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 39th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.2% 206th | 54.7% 7th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.6% 123rd | 48.3% 42nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.5% 353rd | 16.7% 41st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.2% 49th | 35.3% 19th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 244th | 0.29 54th |
The widest gap: Texas's offense (8th) against Southern Utah's defense (318th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Southern Utah 29, Texas 46
- First-half margin
- Texas by 16.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 75.4
- Projected second half
- Southern Utah 36, Texas 50
- Second-half points, both teams
- 85.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Southern Utah, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 55.0 scored, 30.0 allowed
- Texas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 55.0 scored, 25.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Southern Utah
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaiden FeroahF | 22 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Dylan SandersG | 19 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Cale BarclayF | 19 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Rashaad DavisG | 18 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| JaJuan NichollsF | 17 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Chase DegraffenriedG | 17 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Juok RiakF | 16 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Anthony BrelandG | 16 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
Texas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah JohnsonG | 24 | 13.2 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Austin GoosbyG | 23 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Matas VokietaitisC | 23 | 19.1 | 7.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 20+ pts 45% · 7+ reb 54% | |||||
| David PunchF | 22 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Elyjah FreemanG | 21 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Amari EvansG | 20 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Marcus Spears Jr.F | 19 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Joe SterlingG | 16 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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