Southern Utah at Wake Forest
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at LJVM Coliseum. Southern Utah our rank 255 · 3-1; Wake Forest our rank 89 · 2-1.
Who will win Southern Utah vs Wake Forest?
The model gives Wake Forest a 94% chance to beat Southern Utah, with a projected score of Wake Forest 85, Southern Utah 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest | |||||
| KennedyG · 31 min | 17.5 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 15+ 63% | |
| PlacideF · 28 min | 13.8 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 15+ 41% | |
| RayG · 23 min | 9.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 45% | |
| McDowellG · 24 min | 7.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 10+ 32% | |
| Southern Utah | |||||
| NichollsF · 17 min | 10.2 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 10+ 49% | |
| FeroahF · 23 min | 9.2 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 43% | |
| BrelandG · 15 min | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 10+ 35% | |
| BarclayF · 19 min | 7.3 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kevair Kennedy: Southern Utah 10%Wake Forest 90%
The white mark is the call with him: Wake Forest 94%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Wake Forest without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest | ||||
| Kevair Kennedy | 2.9 | 90% | −4 | 69–84 |
| Jamari McDowell | 1.9 | 92% | −2 | 68–84 |
| Xander Pintelon | 1.5 | 92% | −2 | 68–85 |
| Justin Ray | 1.3 | 92% | −2 | 68–85 |
| Southern Utah | ||||
| JaJuan Nicholls | 0.8 | 95% | +1 | 67–86 |
| Jaiden Feroah | 0.7 | 95% | +1 | 67–86 |
Change is in Wake Forest's win chance, in points. Scores read Southern Utah, then Wake Forest. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Southern Utah 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 59-88at High PointDidn't cover +22.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 7W 143-49vs Bethesda
- Nov 5W 97-53vs Grace University
- Nov 2W 134-69vs West Coast Baptist
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 108.2 and allowing 64.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Wake Forest 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 82-64vs Charleston SoDidn't cover −18.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 5L 51-74at VanderbiltDidn't cover +17.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2W 83-62vs MD Eastern
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 72.0 and allowing 66.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Southern Utah | Wake Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.3 194th | 107.5 116th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 113.7 318th | 99.5 51st |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 39th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.2% 206th | 50.1% 212th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.6% 123rd | 50.0% 144th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.5% 353rd | 17.4% 105th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.2% 49th | 31.0% 233rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 244th | 0.24 285th |
The widest gap: Wake Forest's offense (116th) against Southern Utah's defense (318th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Southern Utah 31, Wake Forest 41
- First-half margin
- Wake Forest by 9.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.7
- Projected second half
- Southern Utah 36, Wake Forest 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Southern Utah, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 55.0 scored, 30.0 allowed
- Wake Forest, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 31.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Southern Utah
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaiden FeroahF | 23 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Dylan SandersG | 19 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Cale BarclayF | 19 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Rashaad DavisG | 18 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| JaJuan NichollsF | 17 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Chase DegraffenriedG | 17 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Juok RiakF | 16 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Anthony BrelandG | 15 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
Wake Forest
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevair KennedyG | 31 | 17.5 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 55% | |||||
| Gavin PlacideF | 28 | 13.8 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Jamari McDowellG | 24 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Isaac CarrG | 23 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Justin RayG | 23 | 9.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Xander PintelonF | 21 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Gallagher PlacideF | 16 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Ring NyeriF | 12 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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