Monmouth at Wake Forest
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at LJVM Coliseum. Monmouth our rank 166 · 1-2; Wake Forest our rank 89 · 2-1.
Who will win Monmouth vs Wake Forest?
The model gives Wake Forest a 88% chance to beat Monmouth, with a projected score of Wake Forest 78, Monmouth 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest | |||||
| KennedyG · 32 min | 16.6 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 15+ 58% | |
| PlacideF · 28 min | 13.0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 15+ 37% | |
| RayG · 23 min | 8.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 10+ 40% | |
| McDowellG · 24 min | 7.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 5+ 67% | |
| Monmouth | |||||
| SpartalisF · 32 min | 12.9 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 15+ 36% | |
| DurrG · 24 min | 9.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 10+ 47% | |
| WalkerG · 27 min | 9.5 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 10+ 45% | |
| SandersG · 24 min | 9.4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 10+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kevair Kennedy: Monmouth 19%Wake Forest 81%
The white mark is the call with him: Wake Forest 88%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Wake Forest without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest | ||||
| Kevair Kennedy | 2.9 | 81% | −7 | 67–77 |
| Jamari McDowell | 1.9 | 84% | −4 | 66–77 |
| Xander Pintelon | 1.5 | 85% | −3 | 66–77 |
| Justin Ray | 1.3 | 85% | −3 | 66–77 |
| Monmouth | ||||
| Madison Durr | 1.1 | 90% | +2 | 65–79 |
| Stefanos Spartalis | 0.8 | 89% | +1 | 65–79 |
Change is in Wake Forest's win chance, in points. Scores read Monmouth, then Wake Forest. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Monmouth 1-2LLW
- Nov 12W 74-70at QuinnipiacCovered +1.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 7L 66-84vs Rhode IslandDidn't cover +6.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 2L 63-78at St John's
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 67.7 and allowing 77.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Wake Forest 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 82-64vs Charleston SoDidn't cover −18.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 5L 51-74at VanderbiltDidn't cover +17.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2W 83-62vs MD Eastern
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 72.0 and allowing 66.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Monmouth | Wake Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.8 229th | 107.5 116th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.0 130th | 99.5 51st |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.9% 226th | 50.1% 212th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.9% 64th | 50.0% 144th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.2% 81st | 17.4% 105th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.6% 302nd | 31.0% 233rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 255th | 0.24 285th |
The widest gap: Wake Forest's defense (51st) against Monmouth's offense (229th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Monmouth 30, Wake Forest 37
- First-half margin
- Wake Forest by 7.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.3
- Projected second half
- Monmouth 35, Wake Forest 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Monmouth, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 29.0 scored, 39.3 allowed
- Wake Forest, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 31.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Monmouth
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefanos SpartalisF | 32 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 8+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Jack CollinsG | 29 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Ashton WalkerG | 27 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Jakai SandersG | 24 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Madison DurrG | 24 | 9.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Torrey Brooks Jr.G | 22 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Stephen OseiF | 17 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 52% | |||||
| O'Marion HarveyF | 12 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
Wake Forest
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevair KennedyG | 32 | 16.6 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Gavin PlacideF | 28 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 7+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Jamari McDowellG | 24 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Isaac CarrG | 23 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Justin RayG | 23 | 8.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Xander PintelonF | 21 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Gallagher PlacideF | 16 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Ring NyeriF | 12 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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