Alabama St at UC Davis
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at University Credit Union Center. Alabama St our rank 333 · 1-2; UC Davis our rank 224 · 2-1.
Who will win Alabama St vs UC Davis?
The model gives UC Davis a 82% chance to beat Alabama State, with a projected score of UC Davis 80, Alabama St 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Davis | |||||
| SevillaG · 28 min | 12.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 15+ 35% | |
| FagbemiG · 31 min | 11.1 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 10+ 56% | |
| StokesG · 24 min | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 49% | |
| AbosiF · 20 min | 9.4 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 10+ 44% | |
| Alabama St | |||||
| McMillan IVG · 32 min | 15.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 15+ 50% | |
| JamesG · 31 min | 13.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 15+ 37% | |
| HamptonF · 23 min | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 10+ 43% | |
| PowellG · 20 min | 8.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Clarence Massamba: Alabama St 20%UC Davis 80%
The white mark is the call with him: UC Davis 82%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UC Davis without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Davis | ||||
| Clarence Massamba | 0.8 | 80% | −2 | 70–80 |
| Brayden Fagbemi | 0.8 | 80% | −2 | 70–80 |
Change is in UC Davis's win chance, in points. Scores read Alabama St, then UC Davis. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Alabama St 1-2LLW
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 69.7 and allowing 78.7
UC Davis 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 81-69vs Incarnate WordCovered −11.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 5W 65-52vs Menlo
- Nov 2L 75-79vs North Alabama
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 73.7 and allowing 66.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Alabama St | UC Davis | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.7 328th | 99.6 280th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.4 298th | 107.4 161st |
| Possessions a game | 72.3 49th | 72.2 55th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.7% 239th | 49.6% 243rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.1% 157th | 52.2% 299th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.8% 334th | 19.4% 310th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.8% 116th | 29.4% 312th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 224th | 0.29 56th |
The widest gap: UC Davis's defense (161st) against Alabama St's offense (328th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Alabama St 32, UC Davis 38
- First-half margin
- UC Davis by 6.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.0
- Projected second half
- Alabama St 37, UC Davis 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Alabama St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.7 scored, 34.7 allowed
- UC Davis, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Alabama St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul McMillan IVG | 32 | 15.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Mike JamesG | 31 | 13.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Damarion BondsG | 25 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Terrance HamptonF | 23 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Tre PowellG | 20 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Trey MillerG | 18 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Isaiah BarganierF | 17 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Marquintez DixonF | 17 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
Missed the last game: Joseph Scott (18 min a game).
UC Davis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden FagbemiG | 31 | 11.1 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 45% · 6+ ast 51% | |||||
| Connor SevillaG | 28 | 12.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Isaiah ChappellF | 26 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jalen StokesG | 24 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Veniamin AbosiF | 20 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Omer SuljanovicF | 18 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Clarence MassambaG | 17 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Ylan Esso-EssisG | 13 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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