Who will win N Arizona vs Cal Poly?
The model gives Cal Poly a 80% chance to beat Northern Arizona, with a projected score of Cal Poly 87, N Arizona 77.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cal Poly | |||||
| MousaG · 28 min | 21.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 20+ 59% | |
| WardG · 28 min | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 15+ 38% | |
| Esso EssisG · 24 min | 10.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 10+ 54% | |
| VasilicG · 24 min | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 5+ 65% | |
 N Arizona | |||||
| KominG · 35 min | 18.3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 20+ 40% | |
| AbelmanG · 33 min | 13.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 15+ 40% | |
| ToukamF · 28 min | 11.5 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 10+ 59% | |
| GreenF · 16 min | 5.6 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 5+ 52% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Hamad Mousa: N Arizona 24%Cal Poly 76%
The white mark is the call with him: Cal Poly 80%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Cal Poly without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly | ||||
| Hamad Mousa | 1.7 | 76% | −4 | 78–86 |
| Cayden Ward | 0.6 | 79% | −1 | 77–86 |
Change is in Cal Poly's win chance, in points. Scores read N Arizona, then Cal Poly. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
N Arizona 0-3LLL
- Nov 10L 59-90at ArizonaCovered +35.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 7L 65-94at New MexicoDidn't cover +28.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 3L 77-89at UNLV
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 67.0 and allowing 91.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Cal Poly 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 71-99at Grand CanyonDidn't cover +18.5 · Under 181.5
- Nov 5L 84-104at ArizonaCovered +30.5 · Over 174.5
- Nov 2W 78-62vs Cal State San Marcos
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 77.7 and allowing 88.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N Arizona | Cal Poly | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.1 179th | 104.8 164th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 118.5 362nd | 110.8 255th |
| Possessions a game | 68.6 353rd | 74.7 1st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.9% 45th | 52.1% 82nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.9% 280th | 51.3% 241st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.1% 345th | 19.5% 319th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 166th | 31.6% 194th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 60th | 0.25 257th |
The widest gap: Cal Poly's offense (164th) against N Arizona's defense (362nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- N Arizona 36, Cal Poly 41
- First-half margin
- Cal Poly by 5.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.6
- Projected second half
- N Arizona 41, Cal Poly 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 86.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- N Arizona, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 45.0 allowed
- Cal Poly, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 40.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
N Arizona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris KominG | 35 | 18.3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 4+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Ryan AbelmanG | 33 | 13.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 3.0 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 46% · 3+ threes 52% | |||||
| Lucas ToukamF | 28 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Max MajerleG | 28 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Dylan AndersonF | 21 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Tamiel GreenF | 16 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
| Cade BennettG | 16 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Cal Poly
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad MousaG | 28 | 21.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| 20+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 49% · 3+ threes 51% | |||||
| Cayden WardG | 28 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 7+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Guzman VasilicG | 24 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jess Esso EssisG | 24 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Austin GoodeF | 18 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Troy PlumtreeF | 16 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Ali AssranF | 13 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Jackson MosleyPG | 13 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ ast 36% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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