Who will win Cal Poly vs Idaho?
The model gives Idaho a 60% chance to beat Cal Poly, with a projected score of Idaho 83, Cal Poly 80. The spread is Idaho −1.5, with an over/under of 167.5. The model makes it Idaho by 2.8, 1.3 points toward Idaho, and projects 163 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Idaho | |||||
| WynottG · 26 min | 13.3 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 15+ 38% | |
| GonzalezG · 22 min | 11.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| WardF · 26 min | 10.5 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 10+ 52% | |
| JobaF · 19 min | 8.4 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 10+ 36% | |
 Cal Poly | |||||
| MousaG · 29 min | 21.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 20+ 55% | |
| WardG · 29 min | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 15+ 35% | |
| Esso EssisG · 24 min | 10.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 10+ 51% | |
| VasilicG · 25 min | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Miles Klapper: Cal Poly 43%Idaho 57%
The white mark is the call with him: Idaho 60%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Idaho without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho | ||||
| Miles Klapper | 0.6 | 57% | −3 | 80–83 |
| Cal Poly | ||||
| Hamad Mousa | 1.7 | 65% | +5 | 79–84 |
| Cayden Ward | 0.6 | 62% | +2 | 80–83 |
Change is in Idaho's win chance, in points. Scores read Cal Poly, then Idaho. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Idaho −1.5 | 167.5 |
| Model | Idaho −2.8 | 162.8 |
| Gap | 1.3 toward Idaho | 4.7 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Cal Poly 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 71-99at Grand CanyonDidn't cover +18.5 · Under 181.5
- Nov 5L 84-104at ArizonaCovered +30.5 · Over 174.5
- Nov 2W 78-62vs Cal State San Marcos
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 77.7 and allowing 88.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Idaho 2-1WLW
- Nov 8W 108-69vs Lincoln (CA)
- Nov 6L 67-78at Colorado StCovered +16.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 97-56vs George Fox
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 90.7 and allowing 67.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Cal Poly | Idaho | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.8 164th | 104.0 183rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.8 255th | 110.3 236th |
| Possessions a game | 74.7 1st | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.1% 82nd | 50.4% 190th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.3% 241st | 50.5% 189th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.5% 319th | 17.5% 120th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.6% 194th | 30.7% 255th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 257th | 0.25 248th |
The widest gap: Cal Poly's offense (164th) against Idaho's defense (236th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Cal Poly 37, Idaho 39
- First-half margin
- Idaho by 1.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.4
- Projected second half
- Cal Poly 43, Idaho 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 86.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Cal Poly, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 40.0 allowed
- Idaho, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 45.3 scored, 30.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Cal Poly
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad MousaG | 29 | 21.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| 20+ pts 55% · 2+ ast 49% · 3+ threes 49% | |||||
| Cayden WardG | 29 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Guzman VasilicG | 25 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jess Esso EssisG | 24 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Austin GoodeF | 18 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Troy PlumtreeF | 16 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Ali AssranF | 13 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Jackson MosleyPG | 12 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ ast 31% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Idaho
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles KlapperG | 26 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Hudson WardF | 26 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Kase WynottG | 26 | 13.3 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Kristian GonzalezG | 22 | 11.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Seth JobaF | 19 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Ryan LaffertyG | 16 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Diego Trejo-DelgadoF | 14 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Brady KennisonG | 13 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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