Who will win Idaho vs Nevada?
The model gives Nevada a 93% chance to beat Idaho, with a projected score of Nevada 85, Idaho 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nevada | |||||
| PhippsG · 27 min | 17.3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 15+ 63% | |
| WeemsG · 28 min | 17.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 15+ 60% | |
| PriceF · 30 min | 13.5 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 15+ 40% | |
| BandeljG · 24 min | 9.2 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 10+ 42% | |
 Idaho | |||||
| WynottG · 25 min | 11.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 10+ 57% | |
| GonzalezG · 21 min | 9.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 10+ 45% | |
| WardF · 25 min | 8.8 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 10+ 40% | |
| JobaF · 19 min | 7.3 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Elijah Price: Idaho 12%Nevada 88%
The white mark is the call with him: Nevada 93%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Nevada without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | ||||
| Elijah Price | 3.6 | 88% | −5 | 70–83 |
| Vaughn Weems | 2.9 | 89% | −4 | 69–84 |
| Styles Phipps | 1.7 | 91% | −2 | 69–84 |
| Peter Bandelj | 1.4 | 91% | −2 | 69–84 |
| Idaho | ||||
| Miles Klapper | 0.6 | 94% | +1 | 68–85 |
Change is in Nevada's win chance, in points. Scores read Idaho, then Nevada. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Idaho 2-1WLW
- Nov 8W 108-69vs Lincoln (CA)
- Nov 6L 67-78at Colorado StCovered +16.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 97-56vs George Fox
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 90.7 and allowing 67.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Nevada 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 63-76at Santa BarbaraDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 8W 96-95vs Saint Mary'sDidn't cover −1.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 2W 86-49vs Robert Morris
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 81.7 and allowing 73.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Idaho | Nevada | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.0 183rd | 113.2 66th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.3 236th | 101.8 80th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 70.4 222nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.4% 190th | 50.8% 159th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.5% 189th | 47.7% 23rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.5% 120th | 17.0% 63rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.7% 255th | 33.0% 106th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 248th | 0.27 109th |
The widest gap: Nevada's offense (66th) against Idaho's defense (236th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Idaho 31, Nevada 41
- First-half margin
- Nevada by 9.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.8
- Projected second half
- Idaho 37, Nevada 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Idaho, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 45.3 scored, 30.7 allowed
- Nevada, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.7 scored, 33.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Idaho
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles KlapperG | 26 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Hudson WardF | 25 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Kase WynottG | 25 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Kristian GonzalezG | 21 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Seth JobaF | 19 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Ryan LaffertyG | 16 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Diego Trejo-DelgadoF | 14 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Brady KennisonG | 13 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Nevada
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah PriceF | 30 | 13.5 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 9+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Vaughn WeemsG | 28 | 17.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Styles PhippsG | 27 | 17.3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Peter BandeljG | 24 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 40% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Peyton WhiteG | 20 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Myles WalkerG | 15 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Keyon Kensie Jr.G | 15 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Simon MajokC | 15 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 57% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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