Utah Valley at Nevada
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at Lawlor Events Center. Utah Valley our rank 130 · 2-0; Nevada our rank 72 · 2-1.
Who will win Utah Valley vs Nevada?
The model gives Nevada a 86% chance to beat Utah Valley, with a projected score of Nevada 83, Utah Valley 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | |||||
| PhippsG · 28 min | 17.2 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 15+ 62% | |
| WeemsG · 29 min | 16.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 15+ 60% | |
| PriceF · 30 min | 13.5 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 15+ 40% | |
| BandeljG · 24 min | 9.1 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 10+ 41% | |
| Utah Valley | |||||
| DavisF · 27 min | 12.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 63% | |
| NelsonG · 26 min | 11.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 10+ 56% | |
| HawkinsF · 22 min | 9.5 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 10+ 44% | |
| HousleyG · 26 min | 7.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Elijah Price: Utah Valley 21%Nevada 79%
The white mark is the call with him: Nevada 86%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Nevada without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | ||||
| Elijah Price | 3.6 | 79% | −7 | 72–81 |
| Vaughn Weems | 2.9 | 80% | −6 | 72–82 |
| Styles Phipps | 1.7 | 83% | −3 | 71–82 |
| Peter Bandelj | 1.4 | 84% | −2 | 71–82 |
| Utah Valley | ||||
| Dominick Nelson | 1.9 | 90% | +4 | 69–84 |
| Isaac Hawkins | 1.8 | 89% | +3 | 69–84 |
| Isaac Davis | 1.4 | 89% | +3 | 70–84 |
| Jordy Barnes | 0.7 | 88% | +2 | 70–83 |
Change is in Nevada's win chance, in points. Scores read Utah Valley, then Nevada. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Utah Valley 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 92.5 and allowing 78.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Nevada 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 63-76at Santa BarbaraDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 8W 96-95vs Saint Mary'sDidn't cover −1.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 2W 86-49vs Robert Morris
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 81.7 and allowing 73.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Utah Valley | Nevada | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.0 143rd | 113.2 66th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.5 138th | 101.8 80th |
| Possessions a game | 71.8 79th | 70.4 222nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.6% 8th | 50.8% 159th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.4% 246th | 47.7% 23rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.2% 81st | 17.0% 63rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.7% 295th | 33.0% 106th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 98th | 0.27 109th |
The widest gap: Nevada's offense (66th) against Utah Valley's defense (138th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Utah Valley 32, Nevada 40
- First-half margin
- Nevada by 7.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.0
- Projected second half
- Utah Valley 38, Nevada 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Utah Valley, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 51.0 scored, 39.5 allowed
- Nevada, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.7 scored, 33.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Utah Valley
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac DavisF | 27 | 12.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Braden HousleyG | 26 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Dominick NelsonG | 26 | 11.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Jordy BarnesG | 24 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Isaac HawkinsF | 22 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
| Tyler WeaverF | 16 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Deng DengF | 14 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
| Sherman Weatherspoon IVG | 14 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Nevada
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah PriceF | 30 | 13.5 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 9+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Vaughn WeemsG | 29 | 16.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Styles PhippsG | 28 | 17.2 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 5+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Peter BandeljG | 24 | 9.1 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 61% · 4+ ast 42% | |||||
| Peyton WhiteG | 20 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Myles WalkerG | 15 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Keyon Kensie Jr.G | 15 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Simon MajokC | 14 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 55% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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