Utah Valley v East Carolina
Friday, November 20, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Elridge Blake Sports and Fitness Center. Utah Valley our rank 130 · 2-0; East Carolina our rank 206 · 2-1.
Who will win Utah Valley vs East Carolina?
The model gives Utah Valley a 66% chance to beat East Carolina, with a projected score of Utah Valley 78, East Carolina 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Valley | |||||
| DavisF · 27 min | 13.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 15+ 39% | |
| NelsonG · 26 min | 12.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 10+ 63% | |
| HawkinsF · 22 min | 10.3 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 10+ 51% | |
| HousleyG · 27 min | 8.5 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 10+ 37% | |
| East Carolina | |||||
| WatsonF · 35 min | 13.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 15+ 42% | |
| MedleyG · 34 min | 12.7 | 2.9 | 7.1 | 15+ 35% | |
| BlaineG · 30 min | 12.7 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| BestG · 27 min | 11.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dominick Nelson: Utah Valley 60%East Carolina 40%
The white mark is the call with him: Utah Valley 66%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Utah Valley without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Valley | ||||
| Dominick Nelson | 1.9 | 60% | −6 | 77–74 |
| Isaac Hawkins | 1.8 | 61% | −5 | 77–74 |
| Isaac Davis | 1.4 | 62% | −4 | 77–74 |
| Jordy Barnes | 0.7 | 64% | −2 | 78–73 |
| East Carolina | ||||
| Kaden Cooper | 1.7 | 71% | +5 | 79–72 |
| Brycen Blaine | 0.9 | 69% | +3 | 78–73 |
Change is in Utah Valley's win chance, in points. Scores read Utah Valley, then East Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Utah Valley 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 92.5 and allowing 78.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
East Carolina 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 72-67vs NC A&TDidn't cover −11.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 7L 75-78vs UNC WilmingtonCovered +5.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 2W 83-70vs SC Upstate
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 76.7 and allowing 71.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Utah Valley | East Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.0 143rd | 100.2 267th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.5 138th | 106.9 147th |
| Possessions a game | 71.8 79th | 72.0 63rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.6% 8th | 49.2% 274th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.4% 246th | 51.0% 217th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.2% 81st | 18.6% 242nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.7% 295th | 28.4% 343rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 98th | 0.27 123rd |
The widest gap: Utah Valley's defense (138th) against East Carolina's offense (267th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Utah Valley 37, East Carolina 34
- First-half margin
- Utah Valley by 2.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.8
- Projected second half
- Utah Valley 41, East Carolina 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Utah Valley, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 51.0 scored, 39.5 allowed
- East Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 30.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Utah Valley
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac DavisF | 27 | 13.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Braden HousleyG | 27 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Dominick NelsonG | 26 | 12.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Jordy BarnesG | 25 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 40% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Isaac HawkinsF | 22 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Tyler WeaverF | 16 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Deng DengF | 14 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
| Sherman Weatherspoon IVG | 14 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
East Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaseem WatsonF | 35 | 13.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Cian MedleyG | 34 | 12.7 | 2.9 | 7.1 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Brycen BlaineG | 30 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Trevor BestG | 27 | 11.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Kaden CooperF | 24 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Eli DeLaurierC | 14 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 61% | |||||
| Maxim KlitschkoC | 13 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 56% | |||||
| Jordyn BuchananF | 13 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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