Long Beach St at UCLA
Monday, November 16, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at Pauley Pavilion. Long Beach St our rank 237 · 1-2; UCLA AP 9, our rank 15 · 3-0.
Who will win Long Beach St vs UCLA?
The model gives UCLA a >99% chance to beat Long Beach State, with a projected score of UCLA 89, Long Beach St 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | |||||
| KusturicaF · 24 min | 14.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 15+ 48% | |
| PettyG · 26 min | 13.7 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 15+ 41% | |
| PerryG · 25 min | 13.6 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 15+ 40% | |
| Dailey Jr.F · 26 min | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 10+ 64% | |
| Long Beach St | |||||
| AdamsG · 26 min | 10.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 51% | |
| PayneG · 29 min | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 10+ 39% | |
| SissokoG · 23 min | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 10+ 37% | |
| AmenhauserC · 24 min | 7.8 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Eric Dailey Jr.: Long Beach St 1%UCLA 99%
The white mark is the call with him: UCLA >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UCLA without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | ||||
| Eric Dailey Jr. | 4.3 | 99% | −1 | 61–87 |
| Jaylen Petty | 4.0 | 99% | −1 | 61–87 |
| Trent Perry | 4.0 | 99% | −1 | 61–87 |
| Xavier Booker | 2.4 | 99% | −1 | 61–87 |
| Long Beach St | ||||
| Noah Amenhauser | 0.9 | >99% | 0 | 59–89 |
Change is in UCLA's win chance, in points. Scores read Long Beach St, then UCLA. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Long Beach St 1-2LLW
- Nov 11W 62-59vs PacificCovered +5.5 · Under 138.5
- Nov 7L 70-83at Montana StDidn't cover +10.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 2L 63-66at Utah
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 65.0 and allowing 69.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
UCLA 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 106-37vs AR-Pine BluffCovered −47.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 6W 114-63vs North FloridaCovered −31.5 · Over 156.5
- Nov 2W 84-75vs Arizona
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 101.3 and allowing 58.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Long Beach St | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.2 266th | 118.2 21st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.2 200th | 94.1 20th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 70.6 209th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.1% 213th | 53.4% 25th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.7% 198th | 46.5% 8th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.8% 49th | 16.1% 14th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 26.4% 363rd | 33.7% 72nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 29th | 0.26 177th |
The widest gap: UCLA's defense (20th) against Long Beach St's offense (266th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Long Beach St 27, UCLA 43
- First-half margin
- UCLA by 16.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.4
- Projected second half
- Long Beach St 33, UCLA 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Long Beach St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 34.3 allowed
- UCLA, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 48.7 scored, 19.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Long Beach St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack PayneG | 29 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| McCaden AdamsG | 26 | 10.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Noah AmenhauserC | 24 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 50% | |||||
| Yohann SissokoG | 23 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Max VanlaninghamF | 21 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Jaden TenganG | 20 | 7.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| JJ ChaikovskyF | 19 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Christian JonesG | 17 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
UCLA
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Dailey Jr.F | 26 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 7+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jaylen PettyG | 26 | 13.7 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 42% | |||||
| Trent PerryG | 25 | 13.6 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 42% · 6+ ast 43% | |||||
| Nikola KusturicaF | 24 | 14.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Azavier RobinsonG | 20 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Brandon WilliamsF | 19 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Joe Philon IIIF | 18 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Sergej MacuraF | 17 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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