Who will win Fullerton vs UCLA?
The model gives UCLA a >99% chance to beat Cal State Fullerton, with a projected score of UCLA 94, Fullerton 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UCLA | |||||
| KusturicaF · 24 min | 15.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 15+ 51% | |
| PettyG · 26 min | 14.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 15+ 44% | |
| PerryG · 25 min | 14.2 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 15+ 44% | |
| Dailey Jr.F · 26 min | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 15+ 36% | |
 Fullerton | |||||
| WardG · 29 min | 13.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 15+ 40% | |
| WillenborgG · 21 min | 7.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 10+ 31% | |
| BellG · 18 min | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 5+ 65% | |
| WilliamsG · 24 min | 6.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Eric Dailey Jr.: Fullerton 1%UCLA 99%
The white mark is the call with him: UCLA >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UCLA without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | ||||
| Eric Dailey Jr. | 4.3 | 99% | −1 | 65–92 |
| Jaylen Petty | 4.0 | 99% | −1 | 65–92 |
| Trent Perry | 4.0 | 99% | −1 | 65–92 |
| Xavier Booker | 2.4 | 99% | −1 | 64–93 |
| Fullerton | ||||
| Joshua Ward | 0.9 | >99% | 0 | 62–94 |
Change is in UCLA's win chance, in points. Scores read Fullerton, then UCLA. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Fullerton 2-1LWW
- Nov 12W 101-71vs Lincoln (CA)
- Nov 7W 87-85at South DakotaCovered +1.5 · Under 175.5
- Nov 3L 78-102at San Diego St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 88.7 and allowing 86.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
UCLA 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 106-37vs AR-Pine BluffCovered −47.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 6W 114-63vs North FloridaCovered −31.5 · Over 156.5
- Nov 2W 84-75vs Arizona
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 101.3 and allowing 58.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Fullerton | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.2 241st | 118.2 21st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.5 242nd | 94.1 20th |
| Possessions a game | 74.5 2nd | 70.6 209th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.0% 146th | 53.4% 25th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 110th | 46.5% 8th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.5% 29th | 16.1% 14th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.1% 324th | 33.7% 72nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 273rd | 0.26 177th |
The widest gap: UCLA's defense (20th) against Fullerton's offense (241st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Fullerton 28, UCLA 45
- First-half margin
- UCLA by 17.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.6
- Projected second half
- Fullerton 35, UCLA 49
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Fullerton, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 46.7 scored, 45.3 allowed
- UCLA, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 48.7 scored, 19.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Fullerton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua WardG | 29 | 13.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Christian WilliamsG | 24 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Matthew WillenborgG | 21 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Bailey NunnG | 21 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Tiernan StynesG | 20 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Malcolm BellG | 18 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Anthony PongaG | 16 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Marley ZellerG | 16 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
UCLA
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Dailey Jr.F | 26 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 7+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Jaylen PettyG | 26 | 14.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| Trent PerryG | 25 | 14.2 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 44% · 6+ ast 47% | |||||
| Nikola KusturicaF | 24 | 15.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Azavier RobinsonG | 20 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Brandon WilliamsF | 19 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Joe Philon IIIF | 18 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Sergej MacuraF | 17 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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