Fullerton at Portland St
Sunday, November 22, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Viking Pavilion. Fullerton our rank 240 · 2-1; Portland St our rank 232 · 1-2.
Who will win Fullerton vs Portland St?
The model gives Portland State a 63% chance to beat Cal State Fullerton, with a projected score of Portland St 81, Fullerton 77.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland St | |||||
| RandolphF · 30 min | 15.7 | 9.5 | 1.9 | 15+ 53% | |
| NikonovG · 26 min | 13.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 15+ 40% | |
| IbekweC · 18 min | 8.4 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 10+ 36% | |
| KearneyF · 19 min | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 5+ 67% | |
| Fullerton | |||||
| WardG · 33 min | 17.7 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 20+ 37% | |
| WillenborgG · 21 min | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 10+ 42% | |
| WilliamsG · 26 min | 8.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 10+ 37% | |
| BellG · 18 min | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Luke Kearney: Fullerton 39%Portland St 61%
The white mark is the call with him: Portland St 63%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Portland St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland St | ||||
| Luke Kearney | 0.7 | 61% | −2 | 77–80 |
| Fullerton | ||||
| Joshua Ward | 0.9 | 66% | +3 | 76–81 |
Change is in Portland St's win chance, in points. Scores read Fullerton, then Portland St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Fullerton 2-1LWW
- Nov 12W 101-71vs Lincoln (CA)
- Nov 7W 87-85at South DakotaCovered +1.5 · Under 175.5
- Nov 3L 78-102at San Diego St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 88.7 and allowing 86.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Portland St 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 71-87at Colorado StCovered +16.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 7L 60-79at Seattle UDidn't cover +10.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 3W 111-59vs Lewis & Clark
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 80.7 and allowing 75.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Fullerton | Portland St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.2 241st | 101.8 230th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.5 242nd | 110.1 228th |
| Possessions a game | 74.5 2nd | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.0% 146th | 48.9% 290th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 110th | 52.0% 282nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.5% 29th | 18.5% 237th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.1% 324th | 33.7% 73rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 273rd | 0.27 118th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Fullerton 36, Portland St 38
- First-half margin
- Portland St by 2.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.9
- Projected second half
- Fullerton 41, Portland St 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Fullerton, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 46.7 scored, 45.3 allowed
- Portland St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 33.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Fullerton
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua WardG | 33 | 17.7 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 44% · 5+ ast 54% | |||||
| Christian WilliamsG | 26 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Bailey NunnG | 22 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Matthew WillenborgG | 21 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Tiernan StynesG | 21 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Malcolm BellG | 18 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Anthony PongaG | 16 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Marley ZellerG | 16 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
Portland St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquay RandolphF | 30 | 15.7 | 9.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 10+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Yaroslav NikonovG | 26 | 13.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ ast 57% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Gantas KrianauskasG | 20 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Emil SkyttG | 20 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Luke KearneyF | 19 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| KC IbekweC | 18 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 44% | |||||
| Trevor FrankG | 17 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Dennis Johnson IIIG | 17 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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